Classic car values

[Dick Longbridge]

The MR2 goes to its new home at the end of the week and I'm already casually looking at other motors, despite telling myself I'd leave a space on the drive for a few months. 

I'm looking at 90s VR6 engined motors - thirsty,  relatively heavy on RFL and not quite as in-favour as their turbocharged counterparts. I've owned several though, and prefer them. 

Obviously the cost of living crisis has made many tighten belts and I'm aware that values of some older classics are falling. I remember SIC mentioned the value of his 'BGT is less now than if he'd sold 12 months ago. However, in contrast, values of 80s and early 90s motors such as performance Fords and Vauxhalls (and various Jap) have gone through the roof and don't seem to be slowing down. 

Is the market just doing what it's always done and moving with the buyers - as the older buyers die out, the interest and values shift to slightly newer motors, and the next generation of buyers? 

It seems to conflict a bit with the reality of DVLA trying to price the older, larger engined motors off the road, along with many people simply not able to afford cars with higher running costs due to the price hikes of everything we rely on in this country. 

 

[SEATMad]

I reckon it has something to do with the generation of buyers and the fact nostalgia costs. Also times are moving on and 80's/90's cars are now being considered "classics" also doesn't help.

I'm 25 years old so I feel very heavy nostalgia for cars from the late 90's - early 00's as that's what I grew up around and fondly remember from my childhood (the fact I'm a bit weird as most people my age have little to no interest in the type of cars I'm into,  conventional classics/autoshite is a moot point 😂). However one day when my generation reaches an age where they can realistically afford to fund a project/classic, they'll be looking for those late 90's cars, especially if its performance orientate,  as that's what is nostalgic to them and by that point, late 90's - early 00's cars will be considered classic, thus driving up the price. The fact that one day in the future, a Saxo 1.2 in good nick will be around 5-10 grand mark is a nuts concept to me, but it'll happen no doubt 😂

All of this means that for someone my age, trying to get into the classic world is ig impossible 

[sierraman]

It’ll not be long before things like the Triumph Mayflower are practically given away, the owners are I’m afraid to say dwindling. 

[Stinkwheel]

Yep, definitely the demographic moving on. You only have to look at the prices for old brit motorbikes now. Things like Velos/BSA, Triumph stuff of the 40's/50's/60's values are way down on say 5-10-15 years ago. Sadly its the owners aging and the generations that remember/care about them dying off.

Yet prices for 350LC's etc stay solid and high (usually slightly artificially high so they dont tend to sell for what they are advertised at) as this is the generation that has nostalgia, cash and health on their side currently.

 

[grogee]

Is there such a thing as 'a market'? (For older/classic/shite) 

The sample size is so small that if someone goes and buys a Corrado from KGF for £25k then suddenly the other 30 Corrado owners think theirs are worth similar amounts. 

Arguably February is a crap time to assess this sort of thing, the weather is miserable and everyone is skint trying to keep their houses warm. 

It's worth what someone will pay for it, and no amount of determined ebay listings for inflated values will change that. 

That 'someone' is so variable, that's why I'm saying there's no such thing as a market. 

[sierraman]

The people with the cash at the moment for things like this seem to be in their fifties/sixties, probably in a higher tax band/decent pension pot, house paid off but now worth three times what they’ve paid for it, elderly relatives carking it etc. So they’re in a position maybe to blow £20k on a Capri or whatever. They might do the work themselves but chances are it’ll be a chequebook job, where this leaves someone wanting to pay £5k for one I don’t know. 

[Hertz]

I think it's many things but in particular the current hike in interest rates and people's disposable income has a lot to do with it. 

Quite a few people bought classics as an "investment" with zero percent interest on their cash in the bank they probably thought fuck it lets buy a classic sports car that might go up in value and I can have some fun. Now it's at 5% some are thinking fuck it get the money back in the bank.

 

[Dick Longbridge]

All valid points. I agree with values transferring onto motors popular with the demographic who have disposable income. My point was that I'm surprised cost of living and dvla being increasingly thieving barstewards hasn't counteracted this slightly. Instead, the market for certain 90s hot hatches has gone mad and doesn't show any sign of slowing down. As mentioned above, I guess those with money to burn aren't necessarily affected by any of the above. 

I'm eying up a Corrado. They were a bit leftfield back in the day and continue to be so, especially in contrast to the ever-popular mk2 Golf. I'd be throwing solid money at one if I did buy - I'm just trying to look at the crystal ball and work out if I'll end up with an unsellable lump of German tin in five years time when I become bored with it. I think the answer is probably yes...

[vulgalour]

Don't forget the online influence on the classic car market too.  Youtube and other video platforms will definitely be having an impact in what people are interested in and willing to spend, especially if a particular model is trending for whatever reason.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if that's part of why 90s cars are now rising in popularity and price, plenty of content getting out to a huge captive market all wanting their own personal slice of nostalgia and plenty of people just waiting to cash in on that.

It sometimes feels a bit weird listening to someone getting all misty eyed for something ordinary from the early 2000s, until I remember I was doing the same thing at the same age over stuff that was at the time the same sort of age.  Will we see people trying to rescue early MPVs because they remember being ferried about in one, a rise of the Vauxhall Zafira Drivers Guild/MaccyD Massif?  Probably.  People are weird when it comes to nostalgia and especially cars.

People buy this stuff with no rational consideration. They might justify it with "oh it'll be cheaper to run an older car" or excuse its faults like poor fuel consumption because it's more fun to drive but really they just want a thing and are willing to sacrifice other things to have something that makes them happy, or that they hope will make them happy.  If you want a Corrado just get one. If you lose money later never mind.  Nobody ever worries about the return investment on a pint or a fancy dinner, some things in life are just meant to be enjoyed and sod the cost.

[sierraman]

The tax is small beer in the scheme of things if someone’s buying it that’s pulling £80-100k a year. It’s the cost of keeping it at a reasonable standard, so bodywork etc. 

[Hertz]

Don't forget you can SORN the car in the winter if you are not using it. That makes the £700 a year tax banded modern classic a more palatable £350 ish a year if only using it say April - October. 

[sierraman]

1 minute ago, vulgalour said:

Don't forget the online influence on the classic car market too.  Youtube and other video platforms will definitely be having an impact in what people are interested in and willing to spend, especially if a particular model is trending for whatever reason.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if that's part of why 90s cars are now rising in popularity and price, plenty of content getting out to a huge captive market all wanting their own personal slice of nostalgia and plenty of people just waiting to cash in on that.

It sometimes feels a bit weird listening to someone getting all misty eyed for something ordinary from the early 2000s, until I remember I was doing the same thing at the same age over stuff that was at the time the same sort of age.  Will we see people trying to rescue early MPVs because they remember being ferried about in one, a rise of the Vauxhall Zafira Drivers Guild/MaccyD Massif?  Probably.  People are weird when it comes to nostalgia and especially cars.

People buy this stuff with no rational consideration. They might justify it with "oh it'll be cheaper to run an older car" or excuse its faults like poor fuel consumption because it's more fun to drive but really they just want a thing and are willing to sacrifice other things to have something that makes them happy, or that they hope will make them happy.  If you want a Corrado just get one. If you lose money later never mind.  Nobody ever worries about the return investment on a pint or a fancy dinner, some things in life are just meant to be enjoyed and sod the cost.

Some idiot was on Radio 4 some time ago, he’d sold his modern car to get a Chevette, so that he could DIY everything on it. Crazy talk really, I imagine after a winter of welding the fucker up, steamed up windows, crap heaters, engine rebuilds every 50 thou etc I’d imagine he’d changed his mind. He’d not got it as such because he liked them, I completely get that, just that the old rose tinted specs in him thought that it would avoid him paying the odd garage bill. 

[EyesWeldedShut]

1 minute ago, Dick Longbridge said:

I think the answer is probably yes...

Anything that is tagged 'retro' or 'fotu' on eBay/FaceAche etc etc  is attracting this premium (imho)
Often these are cars that would suit a non-tinkering owner who does not wish a proper project (as they'll have to pay somebody to fix things, change the oil , and so on)

Your Corrado, Rover 25 - that sort of thing. Wait two years they'll be back on there as 'spears or reaper' as the owner cannot economically repair it

e.g. this on eBay yesterday "Bought as a project and owned for 2.5 years.  ... had the engine replaced July 2023, due to it leaking oil that couldn’t be detected ...... haven’t driven it a lot since ..... so had new coolant recently and the fuel pipe clip replaced as was leaking petrol a few weeks ago a .... might just need the battery replacing as noticed a crackling a sound from that area, the mechanic said it could be  affecting the start stop"

[EyesWeldedShut]

1 minute ago, EyesWeldedShut said:

Anything that is tagged 'retro' or 'fotu' on eBay/FaceAche etc etc  is attracting this premium (imho)
Often these are cars that would suit a non-tinkering owner who does not wish a proper project (as they'll have to pay somebody to fix things, change the oil , and so on)

Your Corrado, Rover 25 - that sort of thing. Wait two years they'll be back on there as 'spears or reaper' as the owner cannot economically repair it

e.g. this on eBay yesterday "Bought as a project and owned for 2.5 years.  ... had the engine replaced July 2023, due to it leaking oil that couldn’t be detected ...... haven’t driven it a lot since ..... so had new coolant recently and the fuel pipe clip replaced as was leaking petrol a few weeks ago a .... might just need the battery replacing as noticed a crackling a sound from that area, the mechanic said it could be  affecting the start stop"

p.s. this car leaking petrol is a diesel.....

[chadders]

4 minutes ago, sierraman said:

The tax is small beer in the scheme of things if someone’s buying it that’s pulling £80-100k a year. It’s the cost of keeping it at a reasonable standard, so bodywork etc. 

I agree.

My missus will never know the true cost of my 2 restorations, I'd wake up one day with my balls in my mouth if she did. Fortunately I deal with the money side of things here and she leaves me to it.

[lesapandre]

50 minutes ago, sierraman said:

The people with the cash at the moment for things like this seem to be in their fifties/sixties, probably in a higher tax band/decent pension pot, house paid off but now worth three times what they’ve paid for it, elderly relatives carking it etc. So they’re in a position maybe to blow £20k on a Capri or whatever. They might do the work themselves but chances are it’ll be a chequebook job, where this leaves someone wanting to pay £5k for one I don’t know. 

Here in France quite a few cheaper Capri for import. On LeBonCoin ATM here is a selection of the cheaper. Not a common car but they are about for sale.

No idea how 'firm' the market is but these may be open to offers. So cars are about.

6700€ - 1.3

2000€ - 1.7GT

2400€ - 1.7GT

7000€ - 2.0Ghia

[sierraman]

6 minutes ago, EyesWeldedShut said:

Anything that is tagged 'retro' or 'fotu' on eBay/FaceAche etc etc  is attracting this premium (imho)
Often these are cars that would suit a non-tinkering owner who does not wish a proper project (as they'll have to pay somebody to fix things, change the oil , and so on)

Your Corrado, Rover 25 - that sort of thing. Wait two years they'll be back on there as 'spears or reaper' as the owner cannot economically repair it

e.g. this on eBay yesterday "Bought as a project and owned for 2.5 years.  ... had the engine replaced July 2023, due to it leaking oil that couldn’t be detected ...... haven’t driven it a lot since ..... so had new coolant recently and the fuel pipe clip replaced as was leaking petrol a few weeks ago a .... might just need the battery replacing as noticed a crackling a sound from that area, the mechanic said it could be  affecting the start stop"

If you can’t DIY or fund a specialist to do the work it’s a disaster from the get go. I do think as well if the said owner does go to a specialist and they get the idea they’ve got a few quid, the quote will reflect that. 

[sierraman]

Just now, lesapandre said:

France has quite a few cheaper Capri for import. On LeBonCoin ATM he is a selection of the cheaper. Not a common car but they are about for sale.

No idea how 'firm' the market is but these may be open to offers. So cars are about.

6700€ - 1.3

2000€ - 1.7GT

2400€ - 1.7GT

7000€ - 2.0Ghia

The issue is in some parts of France it rains as much as it does here, from speaking to a few people the French tend to appraise a car on how shiny it is, could be full of wob. Those South African Fords at the place in Scotland look a good base sometimes but many of them look like they’ve seen a shit load of paint and filler and the engines are often fucked. But nevertheless they’re a better bet than something that’s sat in a wet shed for 40 years. 

[Rocket88]

Fifties ( and older ) stuff is on the slide, purely down to drive ability. You’ve got to spend a fairly big chunk to find something from that era that will not be a bit of a liability on a motorway. 
 

[lesapandre]

3 minutes ago, sierraman said:

The issue is in some parts of France it rains as much as it does here, from speaking to a few people the French tend to appraise a car on how shiny it is, could be full of wob. Those South African Fords at the place in Scotland look a good base sometimes but many of them look like they’ve seen a shit load of paint and filler and the engines are often fucked. But nevertheless they’re a better bet than something that’s sat in a wet shed for 40 years. 

Yes. It will be very patchy what's available. I bought my Nissan Cedric recently in France which is very rust free. Was about 50% less than UK prices (if I could find one).

There are lot of leaky sheds but equally there are quite a lot of underground apartment parking lots and very nice homes with big dry garages.

My Cedric was sold and kept in Paris in underground parking all its life. Just takes some looking.

[lesapandre]

10 hours ago, Dick Longbridge said:

The MR2 goes to its new home at the end of the week and I'm already casually looking at other motors, despite telling myself I'd leave a space on the drive for a few months. 

I'm looking at 90s VR6 engined motors - thirsty,  relatively heavy on RFL and not quite as in-favour as their turbocharged counterparts. I've owned several though, and prefer them. 

Obviously the cost of living crisis has made many tighten belts and I'm aware that values of some older classics are falling. I remember SIC mentioned the value of his 'BGT is less now than if he'd sold 12 months ago. However, in contrast, values of 80s and early 90s motors such as performance Fords and Vauxhalls (and various Jap) have gone through the roof and don't seem to be slowing down. 

Is the market just doing what it's always done and moving with the buyers - as the older buyers die out, the interest and values shift to slightly newer motors, and the next generation of buyers? 

It seems to conflict a bit with the reality of DVLA trying to price the older, larger engined motors off the road, along with many people simply not able to afford cars with higher running costs due to the price hikes of everything we rely on in this country. 

 

"However, in contrast, values of 80s and early 90s motors such as performance Fords and Vauxhalls (and various Jap) have gone through the roof and don't seem to be slowing down."

The thing about a lot of this stuff is that it is very nice to drive - absolute hooligan cars some of them...😁 cars I remember fondly, Mitsubishi Starion Turbo and Datsun 280ZX Turbo etc...

[SiC]

A lot of sellers are asking far too much than the market can take. So it looks like stuff is expensive but have a look when it was listed. Often it can be on for months. It may eventually find the right buyer - especially a pristine car and someone is not that fussed on budget. But that can take time.

At the moment there are more people still with enough disposable income looking at 80s/90s and even 00s stuff to keep that market rolling along. Again though, that is slow.

I think a lot of sellers are hoping the market will warm up when the weather gets better in a month or two. Whether that hope bares into reality with a load of buyers starting to pop up is a gamble and unknown. Could find things roll along at a slow or even merry pace. Or it could be a bloodbath with far too many vehicles for sale and nowhere near enough buyers. I reckon prices will start high at the start of spring and then progressively drop as expectations on values meet reality when stuff sits around. 

Right now people are holding firm as the weather is crap and not much else on the market that is lower. 

[grogee]

32 minutes ago, sierraman said:

The tax is small beer in the scheme of things if someone’s buying it that’s pulling £80-100k a year. It’s the cost of keeping it at a reasonable standard, so bodywork etc. 

This. 

People think these cars are an 'investment' whereas more often than not they're a money sponge. (This may just be my experience though, YMMV). 

Best case scenario is that you pay the running costs. More likely you're also paying for storage and renovations to all the bits that have broken and are now unobtanium. Or at least spending money on various products to slow down the galloping rust. 

@Dick Longbridge just ask @Cluffy about costs to keep a Corrado, his is a  'good' one and the engine is currently being rebuilt for £££. Again. 

[sierraman]

This is the thing, unless you are doing up something like a Mini or an MGB, where nearly everything is available off the shelf, you are chasing down unobtainable bits on anything a bit rough. That’s why KGF etc have £20,000 Capri 1.6 for sale, it’s the only way of getting a perfect or as close as to one, so people will pay the money. Factor in to that there’s restorations and there’s restorations, there’s some truly skilled people out there doing some restorations where you’d be pressed to tell it from new, the Granada Coupe on here case in point. On the other hand many of them are fucking terrible, last year at Matthewsons auctions they had a green RS2000, from a distance it looked good, when you got up close it was a real lash up, bad welding all over, fish eyes under the paint, loads of bits where the filler hadn’t been applied and finished properly, crap mechanical work like brake pipes sat on and rubbing against body edges. Christ knows what it went for but if it was more than £5k it was too much. 

[NorfolkNWeigh]

This is particularly pertinent for me at the moment, I’m 60 in a weeks time and MrsN wants to buy me a “ Classic Car”  I’d like an early Range Rover or a MK1 Granada, but the available budget is only £5,000 that would get me into a lopsided P38 or a scabby Scorpio, neither of which hold much appeal . Similarly I couldn’t justify to myself £4/5k for an average Sierra or dodgy Mk4 Cortina. She was trying to talk me into an MGB after seeing @SiC’s at the weekend, but I’ve seen how little use my Dad’s TR4 gets due to his Mrs struggling to get in and out of it and I moan about how low our E Class is, now!
I’ve found myself looking at the aforesaid 50’s stuff that’s coming down in value but if I was to have a P4, Wolesley14/44 or MO Oxford , I’d want it to be perfect not usable or oily rag and they’re not getting cheap if really nice.

Which brings me to late 80’s early 90’s executive stuff, when new if I had the choice of a Sierra for the weekend or a W124 or XJ40 , did I take the Sierra ? Did I bollocks, I’d have been cruising down the M50 at 130 wondering where I was going to allocate the fuel to on Monday morning. So why would I pay more money for less car now ? Also even when they were 10 a penny or even free , I was never a fan of the 80’s hot hatches my peers are willing to throw tens of thousands at to regain lost youth. Whisper it , but a BMW 535 is ten times the car a Cossie is, I know I was there.
 

[chadders]

42 minutes ago, sierraman said:

This is the thing, unless you are doing up something like a Mini or an MGB, where nearly everything is available off the shelf, you are chasing down unobtainable bits on anything a bit rough. That’s why KGF etc have £20,000 Capri 1.6 for sale, it’s the only way of getting a perfect or as close as to one, so people will pay the money. Factor in to that there’s restorations and there’s restorations, there’s some truly skilled people out there doing some restorations where you’d be pressed to tell it from new, the Granada Coupe on here case in point. On the other hand many of them are fucking terrible, last year at Matthewsons auctions they had a green RS2000, from a distance it looked good, when you got up close it was a real lash up, bad welding all over, fish eyes under the paint, loads of bits where the filler hadn’t been applied and finished properly, crap mechanical work like brake pipes sat on and rubbing against body edges. Christ knows what it went for but if it was more than £5k it was too much. 

I ended up sourcing parts from Egypt, Columbia, Australia, Vietnam and a host of other countries for my VW resto, the situation not being helped by it was an early production one and things like the brakes changed after 6 months. Fortunately I'd retired by then so could spend a lot of time searching, it still took about 3 years.

[grogee]

Parts situation is mental, it's such a big part of keeping things on the road. You wouldn't think a Maestro was particularly exotic but because it falls in between the 'unloved' and 'classic' category, there are next to no body panels available. When Old Ken discovers a rear arch panel in his shed, it gets listed on ebay for £300 and sells within minutes.

If I had a Mini, no problem, everything's available.

It took some serious research, luck and cash to get hold of panels to get my Maestro back to MoT-able standard. The sills came from Ireland (I think) with a 12-week waiting period and cost about £150 for the pair, perhaps not too bad but the wait was the killer.

Even  after all that I paid A Man a lot of money to fit and paint them for me. Suddenly those KGF prices don't seem so barking mad anymore.

@NorfolkNWeigh the XJ40 that I shared with @Cluffy was pretty special. There are quite a few ropey ones around but somehow we landed a low mileage Sovereign 4.0 without any (serious) rust. It was a really nice car to drive and a good compromise between special/historic/usable/pretty/affordable.

[sierraman]

On purely a financial perspective it’s never worthwhile restoring cars, you will never get the money back so sometimes if you can buy one from someone that’s lost their shirt on it so much the better.
 

One thing that I often wonder with these 8,000 mile unicorn cars like at KGF, is what are you actually supposed to do with it? You can’t take it anywhere, what if it got damaged? What if something broke and you couldn’t just make something fit? There’s a lot to be said for buying something that’s basically ok but solid. 

[danthecapriman]

5 minutes ago, grogee said:

Parts situation is mental, it's such a big part of keeping things on the road. You wouldn't think a Maestro was particularly exotic but because it falls in between the 'unloved' and 'classic' category, there are next to no body panels available. When Old Ken discovers a rear arch panel in his shed, it gets listed on ebay for £300 and sells within minutes.

If I had a Mini, no problem, everything's available.

It took some serious research, luck and cash to get hold of panels to get my Maestro back to MoT-able standard. The sills came from Ireland (I think) with a 12-week waiting period and cost about £150 for the pair, perhaps not too bad but the wait was the killer.

Even  after all that I paid A Man a lot of money to fit and paint them for me. Suddenly those KGF prices don't seem so barking mad anymore.

@NorfolkNWeigh the XJ40 that I shared with @Cluffy was pretty special. There are quite a few ropey ones around but somehow we landed a low mileage Sovereign 4.0 without any (serious) rust. It was a really nice car to drive and a good compromise between special/historic/usable/pretty/affordable.

That’s the thing. A Mini or MGB is reasonably easy to restore and keep going because they are so popular they have the spares back up. It might not be OEM quality but it’s there and you can have it within a few days usually. 
That makes them able to be used a lot, or even all year round if you don’t mind putting up with their drawbacks through the winter months. 
Most other things could be used like that but without the spares backup you’re going to be screwed if/when something does break. You need a second car!

Ive just restored my Capri, and if that one mentioned above at KGF is a good one it’s not badly priced. Considering what restoring one to a high standard would cost. 
With mine the new panels alone came to just under half the cost of the KGF one! You could trim that down by buying used or repairing the old parts but the end result is better if you do go for new old stock wherever you can. But it costs! 
Will I be using my Capri now throughout the year? Absolutely no fucking way! I’ve spent a fortune in money and my time getting it how it is now, it’s as close to a new car as it could be, and I’m not letting it get destroyed and messed up by the shit weather in winter. Many of the parts I took ages finding I’d never find again either to repair it.

Although I’m not one of those types, you can sort of understand why some people buy these as investments. Imho this doesn’t help the market and prices of these cars in general, but they’re so hard to come by now when you do find a nice one, if you keep it like that it’s probably going to appreciate. Unfortunately this has the trickle down effect of making any lesser examples ‘worth’ more when they come for sale, and then people get priced out of them. 
If you think about what a Capri was originally, it was a cool looking mass produced car that the working man could have. It’s not any more! They’re priced beyond a working man’s budget now, which is a shame.

[sierraman]

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/285572789128?mkcid=16&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0&ssspo=2Jv7l9z1Qdq&sssrc=2349624&ssuid=0gRg2HOGS5y&var=&widget_ver=artemis&media=COPY
 

Take this, £27k, a rough one would be £4-5k, you could easily spend £15k on the body alone and you’d be lucky to get it anywhere near this. It’s also got bits on it that are impossible to find now like the seats being in good condition.