Cars which have survived by mass, and those that haven't

[RoverFolkUs]

I found myself down the rabbit hole that is "how many left" and decided to do some extremely* scientific digging. 

I thought I'd take it upon myself to analyse certain makes/models and compare the peak population to the current remaining population

I think the variation of results shows what cars are being actively preserved, and which are an "endangered species" 

I'm going to go through some Rovers first, because why not. 

Rover 25: 

A peak of 152042 in 2005. 5030 remain taxed while 7255 are SORN

(12285 / 152042) * 100 = 8.08%

 

Rover 45: 

A peak of 70412 in 2005. 3101 remain taxed while 3869 are SORN. 

(6970 / 70412) * 100 = 9.89%

 

Rover 75:

A peak of 98207 in 2006. 10649 remain taxed while 9324 are SORN

(19973 / 98207) * 100 = 20.33%

 

Rover 400 Series: (R8 + HH-R I assume)

A peak of 359727 in 1999. 962 remain taxed while 4020 are SORN. 

(4982 / 359727) * 100 = 1.38% 

A peak of 256261 in 2005, so for the purposes of like for like comparison, 1.94%

 

Rover 600 Series: 

A peak of 116851 in 1999. 813 remain taxed while 1806 are SORN

(2619 / 116851) * 100 = 2.24% 

86741 Licensed in 2005, so for the purposes of like for like comparison, 3.02%

 

Rover City Rover:

A peak of 8666 in 2006. 176 remain taxed while 500 are SORN

(676 / 8666) * 100 = 7.8%

 

In order to generate a fair like for like comparison, I'll take the remaining figures 17 years after the peak in the case of the 400 & 600 because numbers will continue to decline as the 25,45 and 75 get older and are able to reach the same age as the older models. 

400 Series: 

5795 + 4792 = 10497 remaining in 2016, 17 years after the peak in 1999

2.92% remaining 17 years after the peak

600 Series: 

3530+2029 = 5559 remaining in 2016, 17 years after the peak in 1999

4.76% remaining 17 years after the peak

 

So, 17 years after the peak number of the following vehicles existed: 

2.92% of Rover 400's 

4.76% of Rover 600's

7.8% of Rover Cityrover's

8.08% of Rover 25's 

9.89% of Rover 45's 

20.33% of Rover 75's 

.. Are all that remain. 

I know this is by no means a perfect way of measuring it. Of course in 1999, far more Rover 400's will have been scrapped than 75's, which is why I took the 400 and 600 as 2016 rather than 2022. But I think this proves that the 400 has thinned out over time nearly 10x more rapidly compared to the 75!? 

With that being said, the 400 was the longest running generation out of the lot. 

The figures speak for themselves there suggesting there may be some sort of active preservation scheme for the 75! 

I've not ommitted the 200 or 800 for any particular reason. I'll add them in due course 

I think that makes the 400 an endangered species while the 75 doesn't seem to be disappearing any time soon. Probably could have come to that conclusion anyway, but the figures certainly back it up. 

Obviously numbers remaining will be less, because a lot of SORN vehicles have probably been illegally scrapped.. 

And breath! 

I'll add more vehicles over time. Because I think it's interesting. If nobody else does, I won't waste my time though but I thought I'd try to share my groundbreaking* findings

[warren t claim]

It depends on how you define survived. 

Most facelift Pug 406 petrols ended up being exported to Zimbabwe, including mine. They still survive, but wont appear on any DVLA list.

[sierraman]

I think there will always be decent numbers of 75 left, it will always be a bit of an icon of its time I guess. I’m not sure if they’ll be commanding big money ever, an SD1 isn’t that expensive in the scheme of things. I do think now will be the time to pick one up though as a lot of the old giffers that bought them perhaps with their lump sum on retirement will be carking it so the chance to get a one owner one that’s been serviced on the dot will be diminishing. 

[Dyslexic Viking]

Here it looks like the Mercedes W123 series has survived more of  than the Mercedes 124 series I find it interesting, wonder if it's the same in the UK?

[artdjones]

15 minutes ago, Dyslexic Viking said:

Here it looks like the Mercedes W123 series has survived more of  than the Mercedes 124 series I find it interesting, wonder if it's the same in the UK?

There was a definite decline in quality between the 123 and 124, except maybe in rust resistance. I remember that there was a taxi driver's protest in Germany over it at one point.

[HMC]

Pope john pauls mk2 ford escort?

[mercedade]

*waits for the grim reality of the 800 numbers*

EDIT: especially the R17 mk2

[sierraman]

1 hour ago, artdjones said:

There was a definite decline in quality between the 123 and 124, except maybe in rust resistance. I remember that there was a taxi driver's protest in Germany over it at one point.

They were still a bloody good car, I don’t think anything would last as long for taxi work. I spotted a circa 1995 250D still cabbing a few weeks ago in Tenerife, it’s outlasted even the Toyotas they had on fleet. 

[artdjones]

1 hour ago, sierraman said:

They were still a bloody good car, I don’t think anything would last as long for taxi work. I spotted a circa 1995 250D still cabbing a few weeks ago in Tenerife, it’s outlasted even the Toyotas they had on fleet. 

I think they listened to the protests and improved quality. I like 124s but they don't have the "solid" feeling that 123s have. 

[sierraman]

The amount you still see around against Carlton’s/Granada etc must be testament to them. 

[Marina door handles]

1 hour ago, mercedade said:

*waits for the grim reality of the 800 numbers*

EDIT: especially the R17 mk2

Is your one on the road? My 827 was Sorn for about ten years before I bought it and is now..............

 

 

 

Still on Sorn, at least its not scrapped yet but it probably doesn't help the figures!

[big_al_granvia]

There must be more moggie minors on the road than metros, maestros and montegos combined. Go out on a nice day and you will see a moggie

[mercedade]

1 hour ago, Marina door handles said:

Is your one on the road? My 827 was Sorn for about ten years before I bought it and is now..............

 

 

 

Still on Sorn, at least its not scrapped yet but it probably doesn't help the figures!

No, I took it off the road 'for a couple of months' last April, as it needed a little love to suspension components and had a strange drive-train vibration.

Then I got sidetracked by a procession of topless Mercs and an emergency spaceship Civic, bought the Mini and my dad's Saab, and suddenly a year has gone.

[Budgetbond]

Any other interesting 'jewels of survivability' stats you can spot particularly amongst the less obviously covetted contenders?

[DSdriver]

Theory: Larger cars survive because you can look posh without spending much money; small cars survive because they are loved by elderly ladies and students: medium cars just get scrapped when a big bill happens whereas the others get seen as worth spending the money on because you never know what is going to fail on a replacement.

Discuss.

[big_al_granvia]

Desirability to oval racers must play a part too, micras and early ka's are hoovered up as micro bangers, mk1 focus and mk2 Mondeo as 2l bangers. Okay most blue ovals and up on ovals at least the rally guys fix their escorts

[sierraman]

The Focus Mk1 and Mondeo Mk2 went through that period when if the clutch went or problems were mounting up then you could just go out and buy a better one for £6-700, assuming it didn’t fail the test catastrophically first. If prices were what they are now it would have been worth spending money on them but shitehawks like me just bought them and ran them into the ground. And now there’s not many left 🤣

[JMotor]

Seem to be more MK3 Cavaliers about than Vectra B's.

Guess it's for the same issues as Sierraman mentioned with Fords. Why put a clutch in a Vectra at huge cost when a much better car could be had for not a lot more. 

Still see a few Corsa B's and C's on the go too. Not as many older Fiestas (pre MK6) though.

[eddyramrod]

3 hours ago, DSdriver said:

Theory: Larger cars survive because you can look posh without spending much money; small cars survive because they are loved by elderly ladies and students: medium cars just get scrapped when a big bill happens whereas the others get seen as worth spending the money on because you never know what is going to fail on a replacement.

Discuss.

I agree.

That's all the contribution I can offer really, but at least you know you're not alone with your theory.

[Split_Pin]

In Scotland Rovers are few and far between now, to say the least sonthe majority of survivors must be in England.

[sierraman]

I guess as well it depends on the car, the Cavalier was well regarded even long after production ceased as being a good reliable car. The Vectra on the other hand wasn’t held in high regard at all so loads will have reached banger stakes much quicker and therefore probably treated as disposable. Very few Vectra C are in what you’d call enthusiastic hands, they’re going through that stage the Montego/Maestro went through of being cheap ‘run it into the ground’ transport. 

[DSdriver]

5 hours ago, artdjones said:

I think they listened to the protests and improved quality. I like 124s but they don't have the "solid" feeling that 123s have. 

I think they had to improve because it was biting them in the bum, a cabby in Malta told me he had just had new doors because of rust while the car was still under warranty.

[artdjones]

15 minutes ago, sierraman said:

I guess as well it depends on the car, the Cavalier was well regarded even long after production ceased as being a good reliable car. The Vectra on the other hand wasn’t held in high regard at all so loads will have reached banger stakes much quicker and therefore probably treated as disposable. Very few Vectra C are in what you’d call enthusiastic hands, they’re going through that stage the Montego/Maestro went through of being cheap ‘run it into the ground’ transport. 

The Vectra C lost any appeal it had very quickly. The styling was typical GM in that it dated very quickly. Also, the 1.9 diesel got a reputation for needing expensive repairs on things like the inlet manifold flaps, which are outside the normal dmf/injection system problems that many diesels have. The only ones that would be a good bet from the bangernomics viewpoint would be petrol models or an early 2.0td. But there are a lot more 1.9s around.

[HMC]

Likely ownership profiles as well- the relatively high percentage of cityrover survivors- most ive seen have had very easy lives- quite often 30k on the clock- perhaps long term giffer ownership? the sort of misguided ones that bought them new. 

(disclaimer - i had one and like them)

[HMC]

As has been touched on, when values drop numbers drop- but in later life it might not be mot failure and mechanical failures etc but export and a new life in asia/ africa.  

So low survival might actually mean high regard for rugged dependability on foreign shores.

[HMC]

Most ropey mercs i sold were exported; a merc can be broken in lithuania and parts be sold all over europe through e bay which can be a good earner, as well as the other baltic states and russia.

I remember a guy from Africa bought a 190e i had and when he came to take it away he wanted to buy both my w123s and also a w124 estate and a dreadful 560sec that was dissolving into the ground. In the end @Des bought that in about 2012 iirc. the cheapest road legal 560sec, but also the ropiest.

[warren t claim]

47 minutes ago, HMC said:

Most ropey mercs i sold were exported; a merc can be broken in lithuania and parts be sold all over europe through e bay which can be a good earner, as well as the other baltic states and russia.

I remember a guy from Africa bought a 190e i had and when he came to take it away he wanted to buy both my w123s and also a w124 estate and a dreadful 560sec that was dissolving into the ground. In the end @Des bought that in about 2012 iirc. the cheapest road legal 560sec, but also the ropiest.

My W124 was exported to Lithuania. 

[Mrcento]

2 hours ago, sierraman said:

I guess as well it depends on the car, the Cavalier was well regarded even long after production ceased as being a good reliable car. The Vectra on the other hand wasn’t held in high regard at all so loads will have reached banger stakes much quicker and therefore probably treated as disposable. Very few Vectra C are in what you’d call enthusiastic hands, they’re going through that stage the Montego/Maestro went through of being cheap ‘run it into the ground’ transport. 

A lot of what lasts comes down to who originally bought them rather than the car.

For me, a really good example of that is the Mk1 Galaxy.

That, the Seat Alhambra and the VW Sharan... all identical cars, built in the same factory. All the sort of cars that are pure 'i don't want this, it's a tool to do a job' and should all have had hard lives.

You rarely see a Mk1 Galaxy now (especially a pre facelift), i don't think i've seen a Alhabmra version for several years, and yet the Mk1 Sharan seems to have survived better. I still see them coming up for sale quite regularly.

The only differences were the initial (and arguably the later) buyers, the VW buyers were paying more for the badge, The Alhambra was seen as pure discount bin and the Galaxy was largely just people getting out of Escorts and Mondeos that were too small.

Even with them all having the same inherent defects, seems quite clear to me the Sharans got better looked after and had more money thrown at repairs and perhaps even welded up, whereas the identical sister cars all got ran into the ground then disposed of.

[sierraman]

2 hours ago, artdjones said:

The Vectra C lost any appeal it had very quickly. The styling was typical GM in that it dated very quickly. Also, the 1.9 diesel got a reputation for needing expensive repairs on things like the inlet manifold flaps, which are outside the normal dmf/injection system problems that many diesels have. The only ones that would be a good bet from the bangernomics viewpoint would be petrol models or an early 2.0td. But there are a lot more 1.9s around.

120 isn’t as bad. The 1.8, leisurely but it gets there, apart from a habit of pissing oil out everywhere and the occasional headgasket they’re a good unit. Straightforward to work on. I wouldn’t hold out much hope for a Di, nearly all of them will have been through the minicab circuit. 

Probably worth rooting out a 2.0 Turbo, rare machine. The VXR hasn’t aged well at all, quick but it’s just naff. A bit like an illegal dog and a baseball hat it’s a bit chavvy. 

[Ghosty]

Anything with  a Prince engine has dropped off notably.