Writing on the wall for some manufacturers?

[Timewaster]

To quote @Quintus from the Cars you never knew existed thead:

 

I said to a friend of mine recently, that I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Honda ended up disappearing from the UK. They seem to have an ageing customer base and they face stiff competition from Toyota and the Korean manufacturers. Plus if you buy a Honda from new and look after it, you won't need another one for many years.

There used to be two Honda dealerships (Reading and Newbury) near me but they closed the Newbury one a while back. That doesn't seem like a brand that's thriving.

I hope I'm wrong, because I really like Honda.

 

I think he might be right.

Honda range has dwindled away lately. As far as I am aware they just do the Jazz, Civic, E and CRv now. 

Maybe the HRv is still about but I doubt I'd recognise one if I saw one.

The old HRv was interesting, the FRv was a sensible trousers Multipla, they did the CRX the NSX, Legends, all kinds of interesting stuff. 

The Civic and CRv are ugly, the E seems expensive and has limited range. What else is there?

10 yr 15 years ago who would have thought Mitsubishi would pack up and leave, when every sovereign ring and gold chain type had a Shogun or L200 Warrior and the track day boys lusted after FQ Evos. They were early to the EV party (perhaps too early) and the phev Outlander was  the best selling hybrid.

But that is all in the past and they are gone.

Proton and Daihatsu went too.

Who else is just hanging on in there?

Renault looked dodgy a few years ago when they dropped half the range in the UK but they are still around.

The Zoe NCAP debacle won't do them any favours but they sold plenty of SUVs lately and the Arkana is at least different if you like it or not.

 

But all those Kia and Dacia sales have to come from somewhere.

[Quintus]

Another thing that occurred to me is that Honda don't have a commercial vehicle range either. They do sell a ton of other machines (generators, lawnmowers, motorcycles, quad bikes, outboard motors and even a jet if you've got the money) but their car range has dwindled, as @Timewastersays.

There is a new HRV, but it's no looker.

 

[Dyslexic Viking]

And in the years to come, there will be many new cheap brands from China. And with more people in cities who do not have or want a car, I think many car brands will disappear in the years to come. The ones that live most dangerously I think are the small brands such as Suzuki or Subaru.

[Ghosty]

I do worry about Honda, that's true. They don't do much to sell themselves any more, and the Jazz is dead in the water, partly because of a decline in quality from the original, as well as the owner base dying off - and also, they're just too expensive, way more than the competitors (Yaris in particular). Nobody is really buying the E, the Insight only really seems to get used as a taxi for people that don't want a Prius,  and they don't sell the Accord any more because Honda think it's redundant due to the size of the Civic (not that anyone's bought Accords for the last ten plus years). And the design on the Civic is an acquired taste to say the least... I do know one person under 30 that has a new Civic though. They've not really made much good since the spaceship. 

My local Mitsubishi dealer has turned into a used car dealer and lost/given up the Mitsubishi franchise. 

Suzuki/Subaru have a combined dealer near me - it seems to do alright (plenty of Jimnys about) but doesn't sell many (any?) Subarus. 

I don't think Fiat will survive much longer without a huge dose of innovation - the 500 is a FIFTEEN year old design and has fallen majorly out of fashion - and the 500 EV just looks the same, which is a bit of a fail, cause it doesn't do enough to convince people it's new or different. 
I don't know why anyone would buy a 500X, and the Tipo is a bit niche - everyone has forgotten about the old Tipo for the most part, and nobody thinks of Fiat for a medium to large sized hatchback - they'd buy a Giulietta...

 

 

1 minute ago, HarmonicCheeseburger said:

First to make a sub £10k EV that is the size of a Focus will win I think.  Especially when the governments perhaps offer a scrappage scheme.

Seems the major brands are consistently making decent EV's in the 20k plus range, I think we need the proverbial Model T of the EV world.  

EVs are not the future, and scrappage schemes are a terrible idea. 

What we need is synthetic petrol, or hydrogen. 

[grogee]

8 minutes ago, Ghosty said:

I do worry about Honda, that's true. They don't do much to sell themselves any more, and the Jazz is dead in the water, partly because of a decline in quality from the original, as well as the owner base dying off - and also, they're just too expensive, way more than the competitors (Yaris in particular). Nobody is really buying the E, the Insight only really seems to get used as a taxi for people that don't want a Prius,  and they don't sell the Accord any more because Honda think it's redundant due to the size of the Civic (not that anyone's bought Accords for the last ten plus years). And the design on the Civic is an acquired taste to say the least... I do know one person under 30 that has a new Civic though. They've not really made much good since the spaceship. 

EVs are not the future, and scrappage schemes are a terrible idea. 

What we need is synthetic petrol, or hydrogen. 

Alternative views are available:

The Jazz customer base is getting larger, at least in the UK, USA and Japan where the population is trending towards older people. My stepmum's had three and is certain to have another as they gave her a bunch of flowers with her most recent one. It's the little things and all that. 

Civic spaceship was a backwards move compared to the predecessor which was genuinely innovative without being flashy. Spaceship one pissed off the customers with its split rear screen and bonkers instruments. And it was demonstrably less reliable. 

I don't know enough about the E sales to comment, but it looks nice.

EVs may not be a panacea for motoring's sins, but at least the infrastructure is already there.

Hydrogen isn't happening, it's always "ten years away". As Honda keeps proving!

Synthetic petrol won't burn clean enough for future requirements, CO and NOx are unavoidable with ICE engines unfortunately.

[colino]

Look at Stellantis to see where companies that stand still end up.  If any of them don't pick up and run with innovative and interesting electric cars they are finished.

[artdjones]

Fiat will keep going, as they are part of Stellantis. They will probably end up as restyled Peugeot though.

[TheIsleofShite]

Subaru, surprised they are still going in the UK

[MJK 24]

Honda were recently voted the worst franchise to have in the UK by the trade in respect of his much investment Honda want compared to a likely financial return.

As long as small cars are popular, Fiat will do well.

I think Vauxhall will be gone inside 10 years.

[AnnoyingPentium]

4 minutes ago, MJK 24 said:

I think Vauxhall will be gone inside 10 years.

I agree for the most part. The last GM ones seemed quite shite (in a bad way) to me compared to the earlier ones. I don't mind the PSA made Corsa and Insignia, but you can tell where some costs have been cut. Neither have those things for adjusting seatbelt height, even on the top(ish)-spec models, as an example. 

8 minutes ago, MJK 24 said:

As long as small cars are popular, Fiat will do well.

As long as there's enough teenage lassies for the 500 then Fiat will keep floating. I like the new Tipo in terms of design, but I don't think I'd buy one. We (My Grandad) had a Grande Punto from new in 2008 until 2020 and that's put me off Fiat for the foreseeable. I think if Fiat had actually done something decent with the Punto instead of keeping the same shape for 15 years then they'd have been a bit better off.

[chris667]

It has been a dysfunctional market for many years. Massive bailouts from many governments.

The manufacturers that survive might well be more dependent on how much politicians are willing to pay to keep them going than the products they sell in the territories where they manufacture.

I think Honda might leave the car market but they are the undisputed masters of the small petrol engine. Their other markets will still go on.

[Crackers]

If Alfa Romeo are still clinging on here somehow, I doubt they will for much longer except for if their SUV range somehow drags them back up to the surface.

Although I love the looks of the Guilia, since the end of the 147/159/Brera era, the "Alfa-ness" that makes an Alfa an Alfa (you know what I'm saying) has been lost. The Guilietta is a fairly underwhelming car in all respects, which has zero standout features against its competitors. The Guilia, again, gets good write-ups in isolation, but doesn't seem to be able to compare to its German rivals for capability, or the Koreans for value.
Do they still make the MiTo? If they do, it must be ancient by now.

I don't really know what their SUV offerings are at the moment but if they manage to keep the brand afloat, I can see them becoming yet another brand who sell only SUVs in three, maybe four shapes and sizes, with no "normal" cars left in the range. I think I saw a Stelvio a while ago and it was mostly gopping. I assume there's more of the same to come, underpinned by the thrilling* and dynamic* platform of the Vauxhall Mokka.

Oh Alfa... I'm so sorry.

[vaughant]

Honda have a huge problem in that they genuinely believe they're competing with Merc, BMW and Audi when in fact they're competing with Kia/Hyundai etc. 

When I went there to contract they asked a big bunch of us in the induction, say 150 people why Honda didn't sell as many cars in the UK as Toyota, Ford, Kia  etc and that was their answer, they're a premium brand up there with the very best, they even tried to convince their workforce of it, who they've now got rid of and who probably accounted for a lot of their sales. 

Literally not one person in the whole room said that, most just said they were seen as older persons cars or that the model range was a bit boring. 

How they attained their reliability rep I'll never know, the tech in that factory was archaic at best, appalling at worst. They had some really good people on the floor but in general management were just those who were there in 1985 and stuck it out, zero education, zero outside world experience and often the attitude that they were the best simply because they worked for Honda.

They saw it as a hugely successful car company but who were in truth the fastest diminishing car brand in the whole of Europe at one point recently. They used to mock me for working/doing my time in Ford and felt I should in some way be grateful for the opportunity to see how its "really done" when in truth they were so far behind in manufacturing technology I actually laughed when I saw the methods they were still using. I wouldn't have been surprised if some old boy was grinding in valves in a hidden offshoot somewhere!!! They were harping on about a 3cyl turbo engine Ford had in production for 10 years!!! And their other best seller was a 2.0L single cam 16v CVH copy that was neither fast or economical. 

Honda often boasted about their fabulous reliability which they do seem to have harnessed well but in truth what new car doesn't have excellent reliability? A handful. How many cars fail on anything other than service items on their first few mot's? Barely any. Nobody buys a car to last for 10 years anymore, they but it for 3 or 5 max then swap it for another £200 a month deal. 

Toyota have wrapped up the reliable market. 

Nissan /France the quirky but cool stuff. 

Fiat etc the young person market along with something a bit left field and stylish. 

Korea has wrapped up the affordable but still quality market. 

Dacia the value market. 

Ze Germans and Volvo have the premium side licked. 

Ford most of the other bits. 

The only company I fear for a bit are Vauxhall, can see them getting an Opel rebrand at some point, probably only the Vivaro and Corsa holding it together for them. 

 

 

[Six-cylinder]

The way I see it unless you are developing electric cars or buying in the technology and can produce top notch electric products at an competitive price you are finished.

[vaughant]

Fiat/Alfa themselves may diminish but the company as a whole has so many fingers in so many pies they'll be around for the rest of my lifetime with ease. 

As someone said above, Honda are the masters of small engines and also many other things like bikes, marine, generators and so forth. They're a huge very rich company but I think they made their minds up a few years ago that the UK car market just isn't for them. 

[PhilA]

Honda won't vanish from here. They built a reputable image and people have latched onto it. 

Their customer base is seemingly bipolar- elderly folks who remember their 1996 Civic fondly and bought another Honda as a result, and younger twenty-somethings who need a cheap small runabout.

I think they have enough market presence to survive.

[GR8 PL8 M8]

45 minutes ago, grogee said:

Civic spaceship was a backwards move compared to the predecessor which was genuinely innovative without being flashy. Spaceship one pissed off the customers with its split rear screen and bonkers instruments. And it was demonstrably less reliable.

Purely on a looks front: when it launched, I would have agreed with you. I was a young child at the time, but remember being genuinely sad at what Honda had done to the Civic. Now though? I think they've aged exceptionally well, I certainly prefer the spaceship to any generations that came after.

[MJK 24]

37 minutes ago, chris667 said:

It has been a dysfunctional market for many years. Massive bailouts from many governments.

The manufacturers that survive might well be more dependent on how much politicians are willing to pay to keep them going than the products they sell in the territories where they manufacture.

I think Honda might leave the car market but they are the undisputed masters of the small petrol engine. Their other markets will still go on.

I think Honda may possibly leave the UK at some stage.  Perhaps even Europe.  They’ll definitely still keep making cars though.  They’re massive in Asia and the USA.

[GeordieInExile]

Vauxhall/Opel is a good shout. Deeply underwhelming range with no USP which is competing in exactly the same space as Peugeot's own offerings.

[MJK 24]

43 minutes ago, Crackers said:

If Alfa Romeo are still clinging on here somehow, I doubt they will for much longer except for if their SUV range somehow drags them back up to the surface.

Although I love the looks of the Guilia, since the end of the 147/159/Brera era, the "Alfa-ness" that makes an Alfa an Alfa (you know what I'm saying) has been lost. The Guilietta is a fairly underwhelming car in all respects, which has zero standout features against its competitors. The Guilia, again, gets good write-ups in isolation, but doesn't seem to be able to compare to its German rivals for capability, or the Koreans for value.
Do they still make the MiTo? If they do, it must be ancient by now.

I don't really know what their SUV offerings are at the moment but if they manage to keep the brand afloat, I can see them becoming yet another brand who sell only SUVs in three, maybe four shapes and sizes, with no "normal" cars left in the range. I think I saw a Stelvio a while ago and it was mostly gopping. I assume there's more of the same to come, underpinned by the thrilling* and dynamic* platform of the Vauxhall Mokka.

Oh Alfa... I'm so sorry.

The Giulietta is as old as the hills and should be pensioned off.

I can’t quite follow your thinking re ‘Alfaness’ being present in the 159 and Brera but lacking in the Giulia and Stelvio.  The 159 and Brera were obese, under developed GM floor pans and drivetrains shoved into attractive looking bodies.  They were as ‘Alfa’ as fish and chips and not highly thought of amongst Alfa people.

The Giulia and Stelvio are 100% pure Alfa.  The Stelvio has as much in common with the Mokka as it does a Bible or an Otter.

The Giulia and Stelvio share a solely Alfa Romeo designed platform (Giorgio) using only Alfa designed engines and the all important rear wheel drive.  Clever engineering absolutely everywhere.  The Giulia was the lightest car in its class at launch (carbon fibre prop shaft on all models anyone?) but performed better at occupant safety in EuroNCap tests than the newly launched XC90!

Reviews said the Stelvio drove as well as a Porsche Macan.  Autocar said it was better.  They might not rival the Germans for interior plastics but they slaughter them for driving feel and they’re higher in the customer satisfaction surveys too.  

I’m not sure why they need to rival the Koreans for value.  They’re aimed at completely different people.  Heart vs head.

[Missy Charm]

I hate to say it, but there are very few new cars that I would actually consider buying.  The Ford Mustang is one, maybe the new Focus or one of the Mazdas, but that really is it.  The problem is that what is available now is significantly narrower in scope than what was on the market ten or fifteen years ago.  The average new car these days, regardless of manufacturer, seems to come in one of about five colours, offer two different types of wheel and one interior design scheme.  Back in the good old days one could customise a new car almost endlessly.  

But that's not the biggest problem.  The biggest problem is that there's now almost no choice whatsoever when it comes to the mechanical side.  All right, most cars offer diesel, petrol or hybrid versions but that's about it.  Any diversity in engine size or number of cylinders seems to be a thing of the past, one now gets the same engine with various degrees of turbocharging.  The situation with gearboxes is even worse: the basic model offers a choice of manual or auto and anything middle of the range or above forces the buyer into taking an automatic.  It's dreadful.  

The long and the short of it is that cars of the present day are  the ugliest,  dullest and most generic of all time and things seem to be getting worse.  They just aren't interesting any more and any attempts to give them character, such as fitting fake engine noise speakers, are laughable.  No manufacturer seems to be anything more than timid and lazy these days.  

[AnnoyingPentium]

26 minutes ago, GR8 PL8 M8 said:

Purely on a looks front: when it launched, I would have agreed with you. I was a young child at the time, but remember being genuinely sad at what Honda had done to the Civic. Now though? I think they've aged exceptionally well, I certainly prefer the spaceship to any generations that came after.

Same. I feel much the same way. I still wouldn't have one, but I don't feel the same rage I did. 😂

7 minutes ago, HarmonicCheeseburger said:

I really think MG should re-make the 1980's Metro, but as an EV for under £10k. 

I'm actually quite fond of this idea!

[cort16]

I think Vauxhall/Opel will continue as the models are now all developed with Peugeots. The eCorsa is also pretty good but doesn't really seem to get any attention as it's a VXhl.

I can see Alfa going or it'll be spun into a performance EV brand or something, I also can't believe Subaru are still here. their cars interiors alway seem about 10 years behind everyone else,  they've really shot themselves in the foot with reliability and all the rally kudos they has is gone.

 

[mk2_craig]

AVAS…

 

To be fair though, 2021 wasn’t a typical year and the market has arguably fragmented enormously compared with the late eighties where the top 3 was always Fiesta, Escort, Sierra and they all shifted over 100k units a year. 

[SiC]

29 minutes ago, vaughant said:

How they attained their reliability rep I'll never know, the tech in that factory was archaic at best, appalling at worst.

That's the thing about Honda cars. The car themselves are pretty low tech and simple. As my friend said to me, with a Honda you are buying an engine with a car wrapped around it.

You can tell this by so many parts that are the same between models and don't change between decades. Others do this of course (think Renault radio stalk, VAG indicator switches) but I see this even more with Honda. This means stuff has had time to have problem kinks straightened out. Simple, older but refined designs help reliability. Not a given but certainly is a factor.

My current 9th gen Civic is the third I've had (7th, 8th and 9th gen) and my Mum has had three too (5th, 6th and 7th). Despite a hundreds of thousands of miles between them all, none have given any real trouble.

I looked at comparable 5-7 year old Focus, Golf, Astra, Mégane and the like when we recently bought our Civic 9th gen. None offered the same amount of kit in similar or even base trim levels as the Civic. Even the basics like electric windows and climate control. The touch, feel and NVH between them all is pretty similar, with Golf slightly ahead. But none of the engines inspired any confidence that they'd not give big bills. While it's not a patch on the 5yr older A4 for feel and refinement, I guess I'm not expecting it to be either as they were a lot more expensive new.

Garages do seem to sell Civics easily too. With stock not hanging around. Definitely seems to be still a robust fan base out there for them.

My friend actually got a 10th gen Civic 1.5t CVT 2 years ago after being a die hard Volvo fan for decades. He also looked heavily at the usual German suspects - 330e, c300e, Golf, etc. He certainly didn't expect to get the Civic, but for him it was the best all rounder by far. 

So while their factory may have been a bit shonky around the edge and out of date, they do seem to churn out decent products! 

Tbh it's really not uncommon for those that work in engineering and manufacturing to have a very different viewpoint on the products that are put out. From hearing colleague experiences and my own, there are many brands that are both b2b and consumer, that are held in high regard externally which those working there will give a very different viewpoint. I think its the reality of working on the coalface. You see warts and all, with the warts being the things that are remembered the most!

Also yes, for what the above is worth, I am a Honda fanboi and apologist! 

[SiC]

This is an interesting bunch of data:

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

Admittedly this is 2021 which is skewed due to manufacturing issues. But Honda isn't doing that bad compared to others. Similar sort of sales to Mazda and comparable in companies too. Both are selling more units than Dacia and far more than Suzuki, Jeep, Jaguar and Fiat. How Subaru, smart, Ssangyong and Alfa Romeo can keep going as brands I don't know. They're selling similar number of units as Bentley!

What these numbers don't tell you is profitability though. I have read so many times that Vauxhall have for years been great at shifting large numbers of units. Problem is most of these have been fleet buyers - rental cars, public services (police, etc) and the like. These buy in sufficient quantities that they get ridiculously cheap pricing compared to retail. They're contractually obliged to not sell them for a fixed period to prevent nearly new cars saturating the market. But due to these massive discounts, they aren't making decent profit per vehicle.

I imagine JLR products, being premium have generally higher margins. While they aren't doing exceedingly well, they are still not going down the pan. Despite the small sales numbers.

So I think its far more complicated on who may disappear and who won't, based purely on sales volumes.

[Timewaster]

3 hours ago, Quintus said:

Another thing that occurred to me is that Honda don't have a commercial vehicle range either.

Very few manufacturers seem to now. 

Apart from Ford, most of the vans on the UK market are one of about 4 vehicles with pick n mix badging. 

Stellantis is in danger of becoming the new BL with makes model and dealers all competing with themselves although it seems to work for VAG. 

Peugeot Citroen and Vauxhall have a similar customer base of the slightly disinterested and are the Austin / Morris side, Alfa could be MG or Triumph while DS is trying to be some sort of VDP but actually turning out a bit Wolsey. Fiat does a Mini but not much else.  The premium brands like Maserati could be Rover or Jaguar 

Iveco has been a Leyland truck / LDV clone for years. 

On electric vs hydrogen vs synthetic petrol (whatever that is), yes we have an electricity infrastructure in place but don't think for a minute it is prepared and ready for millions of EVs. Its not. 

[carburettor]

Why the police stuck with the insignia I’ll never know, I think they are awful, diesels with oil pick up pipes not picking up oil?  Crap gearboxes (from Fiat I believe) specced by GM to have bearings made from chocolate.

The thing that I always remember about Peugeot is Chrysler, Coventry. Peugeot took over Roots and Chrysler Europe, made the 206 at Coventry then closed the factory and took it all to France for the 207 if you ask me that’s what they will do with the next Astra, assuming they make another one, I think that will be the end for Vauxhall. 
Ford also, to stop making the Mondeo after this model ends production apparently. They have next to zero investment in EV’s and are relying on VW until their $7bn plan gets some help from the US govt. I think that speaks volumes, along with the $15bn loan they took but 🤷‍♂️ 

Suzuki and Subaru have agreements with Toyota, and exchanged part shares I think. My daughter was building the Suzuki Swace or something it’s called, at Burnaston. It’s a rebadged Toyota Corolla.

oh, and anyone fancy a Sony car? 
im sure I read they they’re getting in on the act, probably for autonomous vehicles but again  🤷‍♂️ 
autonomous cars now won’t they be exciting* (well, they might be when they crash)

The last Alfa was the fabulous 4 collaboration of Saab, Fiat, Lancia and Alfa as far as I (am concerned) was aware, the Alfa 75. Even the pre-facelift 155 was based on an extended  Tipo floor pan wasn’t it?

 I can’t see Renault going bust, the French government owns a large part of them don’t they? 
Not too sure about Infiniti though 😬

I can see something going bang though, too many cheap Chinese imports for some manufacturers to compete with.

New Chinese EV manufacturers  Huawei and Xiaomi have backing from god knows where to start making EV’s. A company called Baidu and Geely automotive (owner of Volvo) have invested $400bn in the EV industry, that makes Ford ($7bn) & GM’s ($11 bn) look like Mickey Mouse money, sadly.

Even more sadly, unless someone (other than the Chinese) can come up with a synthetic and human friendly alternative fuel I think it’s all too late, but I’m 62 this year so 🤷‍♂️ or care, I’m just going to buy something quite soon, fancy an S type Jag, but I think swmbo would kill me.

* these are the mutterings of a man of very close to pensionable age, assuming they don’t keep moving the goalposts.
Further to that they are mutterings and musings of someone who is frequently described as an senile old git, it’s almost 2am and I can’t fucking sleep.

 

Edited January 27, 2022 by carburettor
Disclaimer* Edit

[New POD]

7 hours ago, HarmonicCheeseburger said:

I really think MG should re-make the 1980's Metro, but as an EV for under £10k. 

And fake the crash test results?  Actually I'd like to see that. I wonder if they marketed it with, the tag line

If you crash you die, but then you didn't wear a face mask or have the Covid vaccinations, and you had Covid twice and survived, so your probably going to be fine. 

Or 

MG Metro, because you're  lucky and a brilliant driver. 

[New POD]

I honestly hope Honda die.  I have nothing but hatred after owning an accord.