Fall in used car sales

[Flat4]

Interesting read this morning.

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/brakes-slammed-on-booming-used-car-market-as-q2-saw-hefty-decline/269709

Covid has skewed the figures but I didn't expect such a fall in the number of people buying cars. The way the market is, I'd have expected more people buying used. Unless they want to but can't find the stock? Strange times.

[Kiltox]

Gotta pay the gas bill somehow, avoiding buying a new(er) car is one way I guess. 

[Bear]

More people were buying used - but that stock is reducing, interest rates are rising and bills... ugh.

The thing is July and August were always slow times commercially for advertising and car sales after the plate change moved. People have holidays and shit to deal with, and overheating on motorway jams aside, older cars tend to behave better in summer - winter brings out the bad starting, arcing in damp, car's soggy and miserable inside, another year passed and my car looks older mentality.

The cynic in me also suspects whichever tory cu... candidate wins, the party and policies are engineered to keep the stress and perceived pain "high" until that is decided. Then when they get chosen and chucked into Boris's faeces-smeared wine-stained office and the last bits of wallpaper have been thrown away, they can "make it all better" and make the tories look like the good guys for the voters again with some bizarre backwards handout while still being the party that decided that actual people facing poverty should lose £20 a week they'd been given as a tiny uplift to already relatively much lower benefits support.

[sierraman]

To hear they are struggling makes quite pleasing reading when you saw them price gouging during COVID. Some of the absolute dog turds you see peddled for £2,000 these days is unreal so I can take no small amount of comfort in seeing Mr Bombsite Trader having the arse fall out of his business. 

[AnnoyingPentium]

We're struggling a bit at work. We prep the second hand cars, but there's no work for us. Anything that's selling is for folk desperately needing a car.

[Stanky]

Is this likely to see a reduction in prices down to more historically 'normal' levels do we think? I guess other than reducing sticker price, most car dealers don't have much else up their sleeve when it comes to making sales? And they've mostly got families to feed and clothe etc so will need to start shifting stock somehow...

Maybe I'll hold out on buying a replacement car for a few more months and see what the used car market does as shit gets real into the autumn. 

[dave j]

With used values being high at present, people may be more inclined to fix their current car instead of scrapping it as they can't afford to get a newer one. I was looking at possibly replacing my Octavia before COVID but what I was looking at then isn't affordable now! 

 

[sierraman]

When the mortgages have gone up £400 a month and the utilities are riding at £400 a month then I can see a lot of private sales coming up as the recession gets its teeth into people. I’d hang fire till November to buy a car. 

[chadders]

Very much so, especially things like classic cars.

[GrumpiusMaximus]

We're just (ironically) coming into line with the rest of Europe.  New car and nearly-new car sales in the UK have been artificially inflated by finance deals for a very long time (since the end of the big fleet market, at a guess).  On the continent, people tend to have their cars for a lot longer and repair them instead.

In all honesty, it's not that Europe has old cars, it's that we have unusually new ones and easier lines to credit.

[chadders]

That's no bad thing provided that they're not arbitrarily legislated off the road in the guise of reducing  emissions.

[SiC]

1 hour ago, GrumpiusMaximus said:

We're just (ironically) coming into line with the rest of Europe.  New car and nearly-new car sales in the UK have been artificially inflated by finance deals for a very long time (since the end of the big fleet market, at a guess).  On the continent, people tend to have their cars for a lot longer and repair them instead.

In all honesty, it's not that Europe has old cars, it's that we have unusually new ones and easier lines to credit.

Europe has a bigger market for second hand cars though. New cars start in Germany, France, etc. Then they get bought up by Eastern Europeans as they are deemed better quality second hand cars with less potential for bodged repairs than their local markets. As labour rates are lower in that part of Europe, most stuff gets repaired until it's utterly dead. This was the explaination I was given by a Slovakian friend when he compared the two markets when he lived here. 

Where as in the UK, once they get unfashionable and older then the potential market drops off. RHD cars aren't easily registered in Europe. Probably going to be made even harder now due to Brexit and export costs. Maybe we will see more cars scrapped than sent to Europe for part stripping? If scrap drops then possibly see some bargain bangers again?

[SiC]

2 hours ago, chadders said:

Very much so, especially things like classic cars.

Classic cars often get bought by the older individuals, especially retired. Certainly pre-80s. I did hear that the retired folk are getting hammered obviously by the stock market and others. So less money floating around and caution being thrown, despite those individuals more likely having enough cash to buy such vehicles. 

One of the chaps who organised the classic car meets I've been to does the valuations for the club. He keenly tracks auction prices and follows the market closely. High end and typical bell weather stuff like E-Types, Big Healeys, etc have been taking a right battering apparently. He reckoned the "affordable" classics are holding up well. Not sure I entirely agree with the affordable classic holding up as I've seen them drop too. Perhaps not getting quite the same pounding?

Either way I've noticed that the Frogeye Sprite, which I'm following closely as I want one, is definitely struggling. 3 to 5 years ago it was £15k to £20k for a decent one and £20k+ for a immaculate. Now I'm seeing decent ones not selling at 11k. Some big auctions ending at sub 10k. 

While I desperately want one, I am trying my best to sit on my hands for now. Problem is that I have 3 other classics that will take a hit and I'd hope to sell on to fund such a purchase..

[chadders]

3 minutes ago, SiC said:

Classic cars often get bought by the older individuals, especially retired. Certainly pre-80s. I did hear that the retired folk are getting hammered obviously by the stock market. So less money floating around and caution being thrown, despite those individuals more likely having enough cash to buy such vehicles. 

One of the chaps who organised the classic car meets I've been to does the valuations for the club. He keenly tracks auction prices and follows the market closely. High end and typical bell weather stuff like E-Types, Big Healeys, etc have been taking a right battering apparently. He reckoned the "affordable" classics are holding up well. Not sure I entirely agree with the affordable classic holding up as I've seen them drop too. Perhaps not getting quite the same pounding?

Either way I've noticed that the Frogeye Sprite, which I'm following closely as I want one, is definitely struggling. 3 to 5 years ago it was £15k to £20k for a decent one and £20k+ for a immaculate. Now I'm seeing decent ones not selling at 11k. Some big auctions ending at sub 10k. 

While I desperately want one, I am trying my best to sit on my hands for now. Problem is that I have 3 other classics that will take a hit and I'd hope to sell on to fund such a purchase..

The stock markets have held up remarkably well actually. For example the FTSE100 is at about the same level as it was at the beginning of this year and that obviously excludes any dividends paid out.

[Bren]

I have been looking to replace the vectra and the BMW as both are getting old.

However used cars are vastly over inflated since covid. I have been told of people being offered derisory sums for older stuff p/x - I cannot see how a shortage of new and nearly new suddenly makes a 2008 c max worth £2.5 k. £2k for something that might not see another ticket?

£5k for an 11 year old mondeo estate with over 100k? Sorry but no - it will be dead before you have paid the loan.

It's traders and private sellers everywhere thinking their cars are worth more than they actually are.

[Wack]

11 hours ago, dave j said:

With used values being high at present, people may be more inclined to fix their current car instead of scrapping it as they can't afford to get a newer one. 

 

The garage I use is really busy so I'd say that's true , people are also moving away from ££ a month on pcp etc in favour of a cheaper car bought with cash 

The media isn't helping with talk of ever increasing gas & electricity bills , £5000 now ,which is more bullshit as you only buy what you use .

 

[horriblemercedes]

7 hours ago, Bren said:

I have been looking to replace the vectra and the BMW as both are getting old.

However used cars are vastly over inflated since covid. I have been told of people being offered derisory sums for older stuff p/x - I cannot see how a shortage of new and nearly new suddenly makes a 2008 c max worth £2.5 k. £2k for something that might not see another ticket?

£5k for an 11 year old mondeo estate with over 100k? Sorry but no - it will be dead before you have paid the loan.

It's traders and private sellers everywhere thinking their cars are worth more than they actually are.

Does that not also mean that the cars you want to sell are more valuable? 

[Bren]

1 hour ago, horriblemercedes said:

Does that not also mean that the cars you want to sell are more valuable? 

No.

[sierraman]

8 hours ago, Bren said:

I have been looking to replace the vectra and the BMW as both are getting old.

However used cars are vastly over inflated since covid. I have been told of people being offered derisory sums for older stuff p/x - I cannot see how a shortage of new and nearly new suddenly makes a 2008 c max worth £2.5 k. £2k for something that might not see another ticket?

£5k for an 11 year old mondeo estate with over 100k? Sorry but no - it will be dead before you have paid the loan.

It's traders and private sellers everywhere thinking their cars are worth more than they actually are.

I love my Mondeo but I’m acutely aware it could explode disastrously at any moment. Were I to replace it in that even I would struggle to justify £2,500 on one that’s done 150,000 and could pack up at any given moment. A 1.6 Focus therefore is what I’d end up with, not what I wanted but likewise I just can’t justify £2,500 on something that’s got minutes to live. Don’t get me wrong a 1.6 Focus could chuck up a bill or two but it’s less likely to be as expensive and as terse as the diesel. Could be worse I guess, I’d be buying it outright so I’m not a slave to the Anvil-Bollocks Credit Corporation. 

[chris667]

16 hours ago, GrumpiusMaximus said:

In all honesty, it's not that Europe has old cars, it's that we have unusually new ones and easier lines to credit.

I think this is the answer.

I went in my local Ford dealership the other day - I was renting a van.

It struck me that rather than a business that sold cars, it was a business that sold credit. There was a poster up saying they didn't accept cash. So at odds with how I have usually bought my cars.

Frankly, if it sees 25 year olds not being able to get new 330bhp BMWs for £100 a week I think it's a good thing. Money has become sort of meaningless.

[Jazoli]

9 hours ago, Bren said:

 

£5k for an 11 year old mondeo estate with over 100k? Sorry but no - it will be dead before you have paid the loan.

It's traders and private sellers everywhere thinking their cars are worth more than they actually are.

I don't agree with this, why would it be dead?  they will happily do 300k if maintained properly, cars have been ridiculously cheap for years in the UK, try buying a 11 year old mondeo estate in Spain for £5k, they are around 7500-8000€, we have all benefitted from cheap cars previously but I actually don't mind that older cars are beginning to retain some value and not become worthless simply because of their age. 

[Wack]

2 hours ago, horriblemercedes said:

Does that not also mean that the cars you want to sell are more valuable? 

Just had this conversation with a mate who's trying to PX a caravan 

Best we can do , the market is changing , prices are falling 

So why is that 12 month old van still more than when it was new then 

[Asimo]

3 hours ago, chris667 said:

Money has become sort of meaningless.

This is true. All of the money has been spent over the last 40 years or so, and the British economy now depends on entirely on finance. When I first saw those TV adverts about personal credit ratings I was confused by something utterly outside my experience. But now I get it; punters don’t spend their money, they havn’t got any. They spend their credit allowance. A lifetime in consumer debt is just serfdom re-branded.

[Missy Charm]

2 hours ago, horriblemercedes said:

Does that not also mean that the cars you want to sell are more valuable? 

Yes it does, were I to want to sell my car, but it doesn't really help.  Yes it would be easy to sell the car for strong money, but then what?  I'd have to pay even more to get something better or look at an overpriced dog of a thing for less.  I need a car so the current conditions, if anything, provide an incentive to keep the one I've already got.  Perhaps that's what is holding other people back, too?

[chadders]

We're in the same position and keep on being contacted by the local dealers. The cost to change is extortionate so we're sticking with the ones that we have whilst they're still running well.

 

[sierraman]

25 minutes ago, Jazoli said:

I don't agree with this, why would it be dead?  they will happily do 300k if maintained properly, cars have been ridiculously cheap for years in the UK, try buying a 11 year old mondeo estate in Spain for £5k, they are around 7500-8000€, we have all benefitted from cheap cars previously but I actually don't mind that older cars are beginning to retain some value and not become worthless simply because of their age. 

They will if they’ve been looked after, sadly in the UK few people apply preventative maintenance. Any diesel can throw up faults that are costly/difficult to diagnose. 

[Bren]

25 minutes ago, Jazoli said:

I don't agree with this, why would it be dead?  they will happily do 300k if maintained properly, cars have been ridiculously cheap for years in the UK, try buying a 11 year old mondeo estate in Spain for £5k, they are around 7500-8000€, we have all benefitted from cheap cars previously but I actually don't mind that older cars are beginning to retain some value and not become worthless simply because of their age. 

Because in the UK we have a disposable society. Go to continental europe and you will see old, battered vehicles that although tatty will be maintained.

In the UK - especially now - many think the MOT test is some kind of service. Lots of badly neglected cars driven by people who don't care and simply do not have the means to look after them properly. Try getting a 10 - 12 year old diesel car repaired that has fuelling / emission issues - workshops are shying away from anything that could be in the workshop for days.

A modern car should be good for over 200k - bigger engined ones even more. Unfortunately many will never see the TLC they deserve to get to that kind of mileage - it costs money to maintain a car properly. And is not as special as getting a new one.

[Bren]

37 minutes ago, chris667 said:

I think this is the answer.

I went in my local Ford dealership the other day - I was renting a van.

It struck me that rather than a business that sold cars, it was a business that sold credit. There was a poster up saying they didn't accept cash. So at odds with how I have usually bought my cars.

Frankly, if it sees 25 year olds not being able to get new 330bhp BMWs for £100 a week I think it's a good thing. Money has become sort of meaningless.

That's exactly what it is.

They sell finance.

The car is thrown in.

[lisbon_road]

I have a friend who is a car salesman and has worked for Mercedes, Vauxhall and Ford at least.  He's told me that the bulk of their training is all about finance, very little about cars.

[sierraman]

14 minutes ago, Bren said:

Because in the UK we have a disposable society. Go to continental europe and you will see old, battered vehicles that although tatty will be maintained.

In the UK - especially now - many think the MOT test is some kind of service. Lots of badly neglected cars driven by people who don't care and simply do not have the means to look after them properly. Try getting a 10 - 12 year old diesel car repaired that has fuelling / emission issues - workshops are shying away from anything that could be in the workshop for days.

A modern car should be good for over 200k - bigger engined ones even more. Unfortunately many will never see the TLC they deserve to get to that kind of mileage - it costs money to maintain a car properly. And is not as special as getting a new one.

This. If the diesel goes on the blink with some fault which isn’t obvious you are on your own, you could either get taken for a ride at a garage who will play parts darts or they’ll simply tell you they do not want to know. 

Completely agree with the above sentiment about maintenance, I don’t know anyone who actually has their car serviced or takes any steps to preventative maintenance. In Poland for example they don’t have this attitude, they’ll maintain it properly as they know if it packs up completely they’ll be up shit creek. Even if cars suddenly became really expensive people in the U.K. wouldn’t get off their arse and maintain their cars.