Long term investment - applies to classics & shite

[Peter C]

I recently emailed Quentin Wilson following publication of another of his great future investment features, published in Classic Cars magazine, asking what, in his opinion, the future holds for long term investors.

 

Classic car values have gone mad in recent years and there is no sign of any changes in the market to suggest values will significantly reduce. However, with proposals to start phasing out fossil fuels over the next few decades, I wondered what the future will hold for high polluting multi million pound Astons, Ferraris et al.

 

Whilst it’s a joy to see these great cars being used in 2018, what will people make of these dirty relics in 2038 when most cars will be dependent on volts and amps?

 

With potentially negative attitudes to classics and reduced supplies of fuel, will the values of such cars start to drop? Will a 250SWB Fezza or Aston DB5 ever be undesirable?

 

This is important stuff gents! Chances are those of you hoping that your Laguna II will be worth £££££ in years to come could be disappointed.

 

I enjoy my cars for what they are and long term values don’t mean much to me but it’s a nice bonus when your hobby results in profit. I bought my W123 for £750 eight years ago and now it’s worth £7.5k (agreed value insurance policy). I’d be disappointed if it became worthless again.

 

I’m still waiting for Quentin’s response.

[They_all_do_that_sir]

I think the bubble will burst for the mid to low end stuff.

 

I wouldn't say values will necessarily drop but there will be far less buyers out there as owning one becomes more of a pain in the arse.

 

High end stuff will always be worth a fortune because their owners have the means to hire tracks, import fuel, ship the cars to less developed countries for playtime etc etc. Most of these cars only get run at special events like goodwood which will probably still be a thing, with the govt giving exception to their use at such events.

 

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[They_all_do_that_sir]

Just to add - very little difference between a million quid ferrari and a million quid painting. People will still covet them

 

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[purplebargeken]

I have no understanding of the concept of long term or investment when it comes to cars. This is entirely without exception. 

[HMC]

I don't think their pollution credentials hold much sway now or in the long term. Most are so highly prized and considered "investments" and are by varying degrees rare- and hence contribute little to emissions, or maybe I've misunderstood that bit?

 

They seem to contribute most to Collumn inches about how valuable they are and provide advertising revenue for said publications when they are sold. Good luck to them. I wish they were a bit more oily rag and appeared thus....

[HMC]

Also apologies for slight thread drift but I love this dealers stock....

[Walter White]

I wouldn't like to pick a car to be a long term investment. The classic car bubble has burst before with little warning. 

I know that is an Eeyore and fence sitting opinion.

At some point in the future I suppose Aston Martin DB5s and other sports cars of the 1960s won't mean much to people in the way a 1927 car doesn't mean much to me who was born in the early 1970s.

Smoking related antiques have a limited appeal today so cars could go that way in the future but I expect there will be exceptions. 

[Cavcraft]

Do you reckon 'Gumjar Motors' got letters sent 2nd class asking if they'd exchange their Austin Chummy for a broken Kodak Brownie? 

[SiC]

Those that are journey man cars will only be worth upto so much. The ones that are rare and special, the market has mostly decided which those are. Like a rare painting, they will always have value.

 

For the rare cars to carry on worth top dollar they have to be kept pristine. Like a valuable painting you wouldn't leave in direct sunlight on view to whoever on the street walks past.

[Sigmund Fraud]

Like all serious investors, I like to keep myself up-to-date regarding the value of my portfolio.

[Magnificent Rustbucket]

The value of mine goes up and down, varying by how much petrol there is in it.

[Dave_Q]

Do you really think of your old Merc as an investment, or is this subtle trolling?

 

Most people on here buy a shit car for not much money, then spend more than the purchase price per year on fixing it, then sell it for less than they paid.

 

Not the best investment plan but anyway, let us know what Quentin says.

[mercrocker]

I do love looking at those old Motor Sport classifieds....Decent green-belt houses were £1500 back then though, and that Austin breakdown truck (modern equivalent, say, a butchered Sherpa van) was new-car money!    Sure, some investment but add up the storage, maintenance and continual restoration over the ensuing half-century and you need a good million back to cover your costs.  

 

Investing in a car only makes sense to me if you are going to have the use of it throughout the investment period.   I have "invested" in my own old Merc only in the sense of making larger-than-economically viable repairs to it because I like it, don't want to have to replace it and can't be arsed to look for another one.   The notion of actually being it able to sell it for any kind of "profit" is frankly, laughable.   In any case I would have to buy something else to drive - its a bit like being bothered by how much your house is worth.

[dieselnutjob]

Make your own biodiesel

[BavarianRetro]

I stopped reading at £7500 W123.

 

I think you might be on the wrong forum.

 

Most people on here don't give a fuck about the value of the cars that they own, so you can imagine how interested they are in the value of yours.

[Bren]

I saved my SD1 - I will never say I restored it. I did'nt do it to make money - that never entered my head - I got satisfaction out of saving a rare car being broken for spares.

[Split_Pin]

Values of cars is something I let other people worry about.

[Magnificent Rustbucket]

The financial value of my car is particularly irrelevant to me, since the great sentimental value my Jag has to me and other members of my family means I will never sell it.

 

Nonetheless do like to see XJ40s have a reasonable sales value. The days when they were entirely worthless were very unkind to them. A great many were raced - or simply scrapped for trivial reasons. I remember a guy online who scrapped one for a worn wheel bearing - and another because it needed new tyres and he couldn't be bothered to buy a set, even secondhand. The cars were worth nothing, so almost no one bothered to fix them.

 

Those days are behind us now I hope - and if they are it is because of increased interest in them and that they have risen in financial value. If something is worthless, then few people will look after it. That is the sad reality for many old cars. Many cars we take for granted on here are real survivors against terrible odds.

[Ghosty]

The problem is the 'values' of cars are all over the place now, partly because of eBay.

You can buy a ropey but useable 190 2.6 for three figures, less than £1500 on the road and MOT'd. But a cosseted, perfect one could be going on £10k in a white room.

Look at XJs - the XJ40 and X300 can go for pretty much any price at all and it doesn't even relate to condition, it's all presentation, luck, and what people are willing to pay.

But the series' cars values are a lot higher (though they'll have been low too once), because now they're perceived as classics.

 

I think the 'modern' styling of cars from the late '80s onwards doesn't help either, as people just perceive them as old bangers. 

The Volvo 7/940 started on B reg, but the same basic body style etc went on until what, 1998? My 740 doesn't feel like a 1987 car at all, it feels much newer, it doesn't really give a 'classic' driving experience. That could be something too, as well as 940 prices dragging 740s down even though they aren't quite the same car.

 

 

Then there are cars like Peugeots and Citroens where the value curve is a diagonal line. The only reason they have any vague value now is enthusiasts, and the fact there are bugger all of them left after ten years to base the prices off. If a lot of something survive then there's a precedent set in the value.

 

It's not just cars either, I've had similar issues with records. I have a one of 1000 pressing of a 2007 album that appeals to very few people. One comes up for sale online at an optimistic price as there's nothing to base it off. It's not worth that much, say £40-50.
If a copy comes up at that price it's snapped up, meanwhile other copies fester for £100 or more, and eventually they're all that price, whether you want to pay it or not.

Value is subjective, and I'm ranting.

[danthecapriman]

Two, maybe three of mine are probably worth good coin now.

It’s purely down to luck though in most cases with me. The Capri is, or soon will be once it’s finished most likely going to be worth the most. It is for all intents and purposes a new car again given the work it’s had.

However, look what I’ve spent on it!

 

Personally I don’t give a shit about values or perceived values. I get the cars I want to have because I like them and enjoy them. In no way are they seen as an investment to me.

I’ve got no intentions of selling any of them anyway so it doesn’t matter.

 

What does piss me off though is when that works against you. I love old Ford’s but I’ll be fucked if I’m paying some of the prices asked on eBay especially for them. I like them but I’m afraid they aren’t worth what people seem to ask!

[Captain Furious]

'Classic' cars are just the latest bandwagon everyone wants to jump on to make a quick buck. Sure, some will end up worth some serious money, but most will just end up another derided 'barn find' eBay ad.

 

Just because something is old and/or rare doesn’t necessarily make it valuable. Some things are rare because they were about as desirable as a punch in the face, these end up on autoshite.

[barefoot]

Two, maybe three of mine are probably worth good coin now.

However, look what I’ve spent on it!

 

 

 

This is the point.

 

I have a VWT2, bought 20 odd years ago for £3k, now worth almost ten times that

and a 944 bought almost 25 years ago for £7k, slumped to a few hundred but now worth £10k.

But the money I have poured into them over that time...

I could have bought a holiday cottage and been mortgage free on it by now.

Can't see how either of these have been good investments, - apart from at face value - to the novice investment buyer.

 

I don't believe there's a car I can buy today, drain its fluids, fill it with waxoil and leave it for a decade in my garage

with the hope of dragging it out in 2028 and making s profit on.

 

It'll need four new tyres in a size you can no longer get for a start!

[MorrisItalSLX]

When I bought my Jag it was valued at $6,000 by the insurance company.

 

2 years later, it has just been valued at $10,000 by the insurance company.

 

In that 2 years, I spent $4000 (aprox.) on it for maitnence/repairs etc.

 

So, in theory I have made $4000, but in reality I have not made any profit.

[dave21478]

Investing in cars is a rich mans game.

I know a guy with a barn full of Ferraris and the only mileage they ever do is once a year out of the barn and onto a covered transporter to be carried to a specialist for their yearly service. He will make big money if/when he sells.

 

Those of us paddling at the shallow end of the pool are wasting our time if we are doing it for money....sure some might hit it lucky...ish, but most will remain undesirable and relatively worthless.

[dieselnutjob]

interesting articles on running on pure Ethanol

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_ethanol_fuel_mixtures#E100

 

http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel_library/ethanol_drane.html

 

I am wondering if a classic may actually be more suitable for modification to run on E100.

Specifically my 604 has a steel fuel tank rather than plastic, and no cat or electronics to care about a different fuel.

 

ethanol is apparently "corrosive" and so I guess one would need new fuel lines, an E100 compatible fuel pump and an E100 carburettor, if such a thing exists, but maybe these could just be bolted onto a classic.

 

People are also putting Tesla powertrains in classics with some success.  Parts will be easier to get than you might think because it's very difficult to get body panels for Teslas and so as they get older quite minor crash damage rights them off.

 

As I said before you can also do a diesel conversion and make your own biodiesel.

 

So, even if normal fossil fuels completely disappear it won't have to stop the most committed of us continuing to run our classics.

[cort1977]

I will happily take bets that fossil fuel for road cars will continue to be available for decades to come.  Even if the bulk of the vehicle fleet moves to electric there will still be demand for aviation fuel and hence a supply of gasoline fractions for eccentrics like us.

[Uncle Jimmy]

Most cars will be worth the square root of fuck all in the future...I never spend big money on mine and I'll be pushing up the daisies, so I don't think about it. If I was desperate for coin I'd sell em on here at a knock down price, everybody's happy.

[Dick Cheeseburger]

Peaks and troughs innit. I’m sure I read somewhere a while back that’s the relative value of Jaaag E Types is lower now than it was previously. It’s all supply and demand - if the generation that coveted it are mostly more dead, the value won’t necessarily continue to inflate as it did previously.

In the last six years of messing around with early 1980’s Raleigh BMXs, I’ve seen the values double. They’ll continue to soar in value for time time yet, I’m sure.

Then there’s something like my Lambretta - 51 years young this year. Their popularity hasn’t really waned since the mid to late 1980’s, and younger generations are now getting on board with them. Mine’s a sound investment, but it’s slowly deteriorating as it’s sat in my damp garage. It’s still better than money in the bank.

[New POD]

For a laugh I put my MV6 on Car and Classic for £3.5K - I had emails. I ignored them. I do not want to sell it at any price*

 

*there is a price that would tempt me, but what would I buy instead ? There is nothing out there that I'd want instead.

[Dan_ZTT]

 

Most people on here buy a shit car for not much money, then spend more than the purchase price per year on fixing it, then sell it for less than they paid.

 

Spot on.

 

Still miles better value than a new car on finance though, and much more interesting while doing it.