Car value bell curve

[John F]

While I was fitting a new radiator to my cousin's '92 Calibra 2.0i today, he mentioned that a lot of people kept commenting on how nice a car it was & how different it looked compared to modern stuff.

 

Which got me thinking about the car value bell curve... Calibras have been cheap (and fairly sporty) motoring par excellence for some time now, a runner with some MoT can still be had for a few hundred pounds. But they may well soon start to gain in value as they become increasingly rare.

 

So, which cars that are now still firmly in autoshite territory are destined to command high prices in the future? We've seen this happen with Mk 1 and 2 Escorts due to their rally pedigree, VW campers and suchlike due to the Vee Dub "scene" thing, etc... - what's next?

[eddyramrod]

Maestro, Sierra, Polonez, Cavalier 2/3, Volvo 4/7/9 series, Merc 124.......

[John F]

You sure, Eddy? Aren't the Maestro & Polonez a bit 'specialist' for the general motoring public??

[eddyramrod]

Possibly the Polonez, but the Maestro was about the most mainstream thing possible in the day; and having been treated as a disposable item for some time, it won't be long before all that's left is shiny MGs and giffer-spec HLEs. Which will of course command a premium! But they remain totally usable, even in hooligan Turbo spec. Win-win, I suggest.

 

And Tayne, yes of course, Daewoo! Not just the Nexia, name any model, it'll apply.

[Luxobarges_Are_Us]

In the UK market, anything that's got the sinking OVER badge will be sought after once today's fortysomethings move towards retirement. I predict that in 15 years' time they will be almost as annoying as the MGB owners of 2011.

 

Like eddy said, I can see some Eastern European models appreciating in the near future. Not too sure about the Polonez, mind- I reckon Trabants (already a rather popular classic) and rear-engined Skodas will fare better.

 

The first Lexus LS400s should also have some historical significance that will be realised sometime in the future.

 

I'd like to include Daihatsus in the list, but they are too far from the mainstream and will probably fall by the wayside.

 

Other cars that come to mind are more usual suspects, mostly sporty/coupe things...same kind of case as the Calibra.... Subaru SVX, 406 Coupe, Daihatsu Copen, Fiat Coupe and some quirky models such as the Avantime and Multipla.

[barefoot]

306 cabrio?

[RoadworkUK]

Ford Puma. Possibly rust-free original KAs, if such things exsist. Anywhere.

[Justin Case]

Rarity is not enough on its own to ensure a high value (eg all Standards) nor is nostalgia (eg all Hillmans MG Midgets, etc, etc) What is needed is an 'Entry Ticket' Escorts were the last cars based on ordinary cars to win international rallies, so a Mark 1 or 2 gives you a seat at the top table in the world of historic rallying, and a VW camper lets you into a parallel world of Southern California surf culture, even if its only in Malvern

 

So what can follow that? Rovers, no. The Austin Cambridge might have been the first car the family ever had, but the Maestro was just an everyday domestic appliance when it was new, so doesn't even have any nostalgic appeal. Motor sport is now so specialised that the cars don't even pretend to be like road cars. Jaguars, fabulous cars but the laws of supply and demand will keep prices low.

 

My guess is that italian cars will be the best place to put your money. Decent 1980s rwd Alfas look cheap and there's a good club support, and on another level surely a Maserati 3200GT at £10k can only go up, especially when they become eligible for the major concours events (sorry, but I don't think we'll ever see a Tagora at Villa d'Este ) Outside chance, Saab 99 and classic 900 Turbos, they seem to have disappeared off the radar, but I think that their time will come when they will get you into more than an SOC event.

 

Final thought, a very nice Austin 7 box saloon went for £8,900 yesterday, even though there is probably no-one driving now who can remember them new; that would have been unthinkable even just a couple of years ago

[michael1703]

I think Scimitars are much overlooked, they go for pennies, later ones are much bigger so can seat 4 and the family dog and some shopping, good engine and overdrive, high 20's mpg, parts are cheap, body cant rust etc etc

[Autoplas]

Rarity is not enough on its own to ensure a high value (eg all Standards) nor is nostalgia (eg all Hillmans MG Midgets, etc, etc) What is needed is an 'Entry Ticket' Escorts were the last cars based on ordinary cars to win international rallies, so a Mark 1 or 2 gives you a seat at the top table in the world of historic rallying, and a VW camper lets you into a parallel world of Southern California surf culture, even if its only in Malvern

 

So what can follow that? Rovers, no. The Austin Cambridge might have been the first car the family ever had, but the Maestro was just an everyday domestic appliance when it was new, so doesn't even have any nostalgic appeal. Motor sport is now so specialised that the cars don't even pretend to be like road cars. Jaguars, fabulous cars but the laws of supply and demand will keep prices low.

 

My guess is that italian cars will be the best place to put your money. Decent 1980s rwd Alfas look cheap and there's a good club support, and on another level surely a Maserati 3200GT at £10k can only go up, especially when they become eligible for the major concours events (sorry, but I don't think we'll ever see a Tagora at Villa d'Este ) Outside chance, Saab 99 and classic 900 Turbos, they seem to have disappeared off the radar, but I think that their time will come when they will get you into more than an SOC event.

 

Final thought, a very nice Austin 7 box saloon went for £8,900 yesterday, even though there is probably no-one driving now who can remember them new; that would have been unthinkable even just a couple of years ago

 

Completely agree with this.

 

No way anything like a Calibra, Maestro etc will ever command the kind of money the RS Ford Escorts and even standard 2 door Mk1 & Mk2s pull in. As for the FSO, had to LOL, its a truly terrible car, there is 0% chance of them ever being big money cars (if any are even left by the time they get to comparable age to the Mk1&2 Escorts).

[Luxobarges_Are_Us]

I don't subscribe to the school of thought that reckons "the Escort mk2 was the last rally car to be based on a road car". Seems like an after-the-fact justification of a 'fashion' (for want of a better word) trend.

 

The Audi Quattro and Samba Rallye were both later than the Escort mk2, enjoyed quite a bit of rallying success (especially the Audi) but still don't fetch anywhere near what Escorts do. In fact, the "cooking" versions of the Escort (especially in 4 door flavour) only seem to fetch strong money in the UK. Is everyone on the continent missing the trick, then? No- it's just a case of a vibrant scene that creates a virtuous circle of demand, just like what happens with the VW campers.

 

Past performance is no guarantee for future success!

[The Reverend Bluejeans]

Nice 2 door E30 3 Series will be worth bundles in years to come. They're sort of on the way now.

 

Astra Mark 2 GTE's, especially the 16v will be worth big dollars - they're already extinct. They could well outpace the Golf GTi Mark 2. Cavaliers are worthy enough but are just engine donors. Not sure on the Calibra - maybe.

 

Absolutely nothing from Rover will be worth more than a cup of cold piss. Same with most nineties Fords. The Ka will become a surefire classic because they were such a massive leap forward for Ford, very controversial yet very popular - and there will be none left in 20 years. The Probe may have a following thanks to comedy value (they were actually quite good), the Cougar will not.

 

The secret is this - cars don't need to be particularly brilliant, but had to be evocative of a certain era and lusted after. The seventies and eighties were great days for motoring, the nineties and 2000's were not. Driving increasingly became a pain in the arse and people fell out of love with cars.

Mark 3 Cortinas were really not that good, but they were stylish, well marketed and sold in big numbers. That fact that it's worth 3 times as much as the FE Vauxhall Victor - a much better car really - is neither here nor there. Ebay is littered with 20-50 year old cars which are still worth fuck all. These are the ones that interest me.

[Negative Creep]

Any performance Ford and, to a slightly lesser extent, Vauxhall. Also French hot hatches, whereas the povvo spec ones will remain pretty worthless

[Pete-M]

Nothing from Rover? I'll agree that nothing FWD they build will ever be worth anything.

 

Performance Fords are a given. I think the Mk1 Focus ST170 will begin to be sought after, and rightfully so. Puma 1.7s also.

 

XJR-6s, obviously.

 

Maestros will have a bit of curiosity value. They're just another Allegro at the end of the day, even after close to 40 years the Allegro is still worthless, I can't see the more rust-prone Maestro or Montego ever being worth much.

 

Lexus LS400 I don't see as being a classic any more than a Nissan 300C or Toyota Crown is now.

 

As for the Mk2 Escort being worth more than an Audi Quattro - that's because the Escort is still cheap and easy to fix, will still win rallies, is more fun than a Quattro and is easier to get bits for. The Escort is also better looking, a more successful rally car, more fun to drive and easier to get just right. I really don't understand the whole Audi Quattro thing. Yes they grip well, and they don't handle badly, but they're dull. Integrales and Imprezas are so much more fun.

[Felly Magic]

Rear engined Skuds are starting to get thin on the ground (unless you are a bloke called Dave ) , but values still are fairly low, even for minters. I've recently seen jokers on the bay of e's asking insane money for Lada Rivas though. A mint one for £3.5k? they are having a tin bath!

 

Most stuff that carries the blue oval seem to go nuts in value, and I think Mk1 Festers are starting to go that way as they get rarer, especially non chav'd examples.

[DSdriver]

I think a lot of us are influenced by cars that we admired in our childhood - so ask a bunch of kids and see if they come up with a consensus.

[Felly Magic]

The XstationWiibox generation are being exposed to quite a lot of older chod in the racing games. For instance GT4 on the PS2 has loads of old crap, even the Ovlov 240 GL estate, which you can get in beige!

 

The trouble is, modern stuff is so boring and dull, and few cars really do stand out. The Mk1 Fabia vRS is starting to get a bit of a following with the younger lot, thanks to low insurance, it being fast, and economical, but many are starting to get severely 'Barryboy'd innit'.

 

A lot of modern stuff wont even make it to classic status either, due to the overly complex electronics they are now being fitted with. Cars with flappy paddle boxes will die at fairly young ages, when the gearbox dies, and it will cost twice what the car is worth to fix, so that rules out nearly all current hot hatches...

[fiatdaft]

Err no ^ !

[andrew e]

Anything that raced or rallied in period. Cosworths are criminally cheap still. XR Ford's, any clean commercial vehicle, 155's.

[cms206]

Anything that raced or rallied in period.

 

 

Time to start snapping up Mk2 Hyundai Accident MVis now, lads!

[Father Ted]

I think a lot of us are influenced by cars that we admired in our childhood - so ask a bunch of kids and see if they come up with a consensus.

Right, I'll start stockpiling MPV's then....

[Felly Magic]

Pardon? VAG have quoted a life of 'less than 200,000' miles for DSG units and they are sealed, so replacement is the only alternative. Also most manufacturers now are just churning out 'Euroclones' which rarely have 'halo models' to give the range that lift.

 

Girlie cars such as the Bini & posh swb Panda (500) will gain cult status, simply because of their Fashion image. Ford don't have anything that will do what the old 70s and 80s stuff did. (XR3's are becoming cult cars now, with prices rising, and the market is slowly cottoning on to the Mk1 XR4i) Hot Focus & Fiesta models are rare (unlike in the 70s & 80s when the performance models were cheap & plentiful), plus modding them is now no longer a DIY job unless you have the computing skills to write engine maps.

 

Thus the current 'yoof' are now looking at 80s chod, and prices of old Polos & Golfs are going insane, especially lower end models with small engines. Anything 70s & 80s & rwd is loved by the drift mob, especially the 340, and Jap stuff. The stuff from the 90s is mostly binned now, so the Scrote Mk5 wont become a cult car (it was crap anyway), so what to future generations have to look forward to? Not a lot really,apart from Paxos & 206's, plus the odd Cunto, which will cause cars from the 70s and 80's to get more expensive still. Pretzels & Evosticks will never be affordable to insure for the younger gens, plus they will by then all have either blown up, or rusted away.

 

Cossies arent that cheap by the way, even a dog rough Sap you are talking £3-4k (which will no doubt need the help of Mr MiG), Scrotes are still well over £10k for a reasonable one too

 

MX5's are gaining semi cult staus now though, and modding them is getting fairly common, esp cheap Eunos models.

[fiatdaft]

Your way off,my almost mint saph 4x4 cosworth was 2 k last year,hardly any hot hatches have flappy paddle gearbox's,a dsg box is not sealed for life,flappy paddles have been with us since the 90's and are still going.To say moden stuff is boring,have you driven any modern performance cars? We have never had so much choice and performance for the price.Prices of old golfs and polo's insane? nope still cheap.Hot focus and fiesta rare?have you never heard of the st?

 

No car is perfect.

[cort16]

Focus RS and Puma Racing given hot fords do well when they're good. Maybe early Mk3 Astra Gsis with the XE rather than Eco tec. I think anything with an XE will become saught after in it's natural habitat as that engine's turning into a big of a leg' and lots of cars are getting plundered. Outsiders are top spec XM's are they're so frickin odd but the interiors are lush on the high spec ones. Also Avantimes because I love em but they'll all be hopelessly crippled by electronic failure in another 10-15 year time.

[alf892]

I think a lot of us are influenced by cars that we admired in our childhood - so ask a bunch of kids and see if they come up with a consensus.

 

I reckon this has a big effect. Loads of us like stuff that was around in our formative years........either what dad had or what we wanted him to have. Thats why our yoof are picking what they do. OK there will always be oddballs (usually on here!) who disprove this as an absolute but generally it remains pretty true.

 

And the modern is boring thing means fa.........when most cars were new they were boring appliances (inc the cooking mk1 and 2 escorts) just like now.

 

I should like mk cortinas but when i was a kid my dad ran a small country garage......and like most such places it had a small scrapyard where part exed crap went to die. So I spent hours pretending to drive pre and post war stuff. I still remember coming home from school one day and finding the Scrapman had been and all that remained were the quatered and smoking remains of my favourite cars. Hated that Scrapman.......but the point is that I now lust after that era of stuff......as well as more 'accepted' shite.

[alf892]

I think a lot of us are influenced by cars that we admired in our childhood - so ask a bunch of kids and see if they come up with a consensus.

 

I reckon this has a big effect. Loads of us like stuff that was around in our formative years........either what dad had or what we wanted him to have. Thats why our yoof are picking what they do. OK there will always be oddballs (usually on here!) who disprove this as an absolute but generally it remains pretty true.

 

And the modern is boring thing means fa.........when most cars were new they were boring appliances (inc the cooking mk1 and 2 escorts) just like now.

 

I should like mk cortinas but when i was a kid my dad ran a small country garage......and like most such places it had a small scrapyard where part exed crap went to die. So I spent hours pretending to drive pre and post war stuff. I still remember coming home from school one day and finding the Scrapman had been and all that remained were the quatered and smoking remains of my favourite cars. Hated that Scrapman.......but the point is that I now lust after that era of stuff......as well as more 'accepted' shite.

[The Reverend Bluejeans]

Modern cars are anything but boring. These days even plodding hatches like the latest Astra are astonishingly good. Look how cheap BMW 130i's are now - 260 bhp, loads of grip and as fast as fuck. Rather than spending 12 grand on a averagely restored Mexico and trying to re-live someone elses youth, I'd rather own a 130i and enjoy something fast and a bit heroic right now.

I've found that old performance cars are inevitably a disappointment. A Lotus Cortina would get shat all over by a 130 Transit or Renault Trafic and so would be ever so slightly pointless other than parking it in a field and collecting trophies for cleanest ashtray. On the other side, I bet a really nice uptogether 2.3 Granada would still be a nice thing to plod about in.

I'm reading the latest Classic & Sportscar and getting the horn over a blue 1972 FE Ventora with Rostyles and a black vinyl roof. I bet that's a pleasant old thing to cruise around in.

[mk2_craig]

A good guide to what's going to be worth decent coin in 5-10 years time is anything I've owned and disposed of in the last two years or so...

 

Three dead mk2 Fiestas (including one XR2), an early rwd Sierra Sapphire Cosworth, and a 2004 Focus ST170. Okay so the latter will probably need more like 20 years to have bottomed out and start appreciating again, but Fast Ford tax will eventually kick in once 95% of them have been binned.

 

I'm still hanging onto an early mk2 XR2 in the confident expectation that it'll be worth a fortune one day. Despite needing a fortune spent on it to keep it roadworthy.

[AnthonyG]

I don't subscribe to the school of thought that reckons "the Escort mk2 was the last rally car to be based on a road car". Seems like an after-the-fact justification of a 'fashion' (for want of a better word) trend.

 

The Audi Quattro and Samba Rallye were both later than the Escort mk2, enjoyed quite a bit of rallying success (especially the Audi) but still don't fetch anywhere near what Escorts do. In fact, the "cooking" versions of the Escort (especially in 4 door flavour) only seem to fetch strong money in the UK. Is everyone on the continent missing the trick, then? No- it's just a case of a vibrant scene that creates a virtuous circle of demand, just like what happens with the VW campers.

 

Past performance is no guarantee for future success!

 

Proper Audi Quattros are worth just as much as Escort Mk2s. 80s/100/200s etc with 4wd with Quattro badges on are worth very little in comparison. I've never heard of a Samba Rallye so they are hardly in the same league as the Escort or the Audi.

[dieselnutjob]

Peugeot 406 coupes will not get any cheaper.

Citroen C6 has not hit the bottom of the curve but I think that they will go up afterwards like other big Citroens.

All Jags, although not sure about the X type.

Peugeot 205 GTIs are getting more valuable aren't they?

If it's about nostalgia for what car your dad had then BMW 3 series it's todays equivalent of the Cortina