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Used Car Prices - What do you reckon will happen?


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Thinking during my daily browsing of assorted rammel, I started to wonder if the impending/ongoing cost of living crisis is about to affect used car prices. 

*I did wonder whether to put this in the Politics/Open Forums bit, but as it’s car related it’s here.

I’m not so concerned with efficient modern tat, I reckon if it’s a modern thats über cheap to run it’ll command high prices. I’m thinking of the stuff that doesn’t usually make it onto cost-conscious buyers lists, so pretty much anything that does sub-40mpg, costs over £200 per year to tax, etc. Prices of most cars been a bit high recently, pushed by people having a bit of spare cash from lockdown, but if that cash is drying up and people are having to fund increased living costs, it should follow that the funds available for fun things and fuel hungry/expensive/2nd-3rd cars decrease.

So, what’s the thoughts of the beige on this? Are prices of less efficient/expensive to run stuff (certainly including stuff from the low cost/big liability thread) about to drop, stay the same or, perhaps less likely, about to increase?

 

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1 minute ago, ProgRocker said:

Is there still a semiconductor shortage affecting the supply of new cars? :huh:

Yes. Supply of parts, even if not electronic is a disaster in all industries. 

Where I work (hydraulics)  we have 3 months arrears and if you wanted to order something today we'd give you a 6 month delivery date. 

The other week we had 3 purchasing people from a big famous off highway plant manufacturer based in Staffordshire, sitting in a room with our purchasing people trying to find alternative suppliers and expedite parts from existing suppliers to try to ensure that we don't stop thier assembly line..

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The UK has long been the exception to the rest of the world when it comes to second hand car prices. There has long since been a mentality that anything over 100K miles is done for and fit only for scrap. This would be laughed at in other countries.

I had a friend in Aus a few years ago who bought a used Chrysler PT which was nearly double what the same car would have sold for in the UK.

I think that cheap second hand cars, especially those that for a while fell into the very cheap or free VED category are a thing of the past, and pretty soon a roadworthy halfway decent car is going to be around £2000 with anything less being of a quality likely to be on its way to the scrappers quite soon.

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U.K. prices have been cheap but our climate, road salt and a majority seeming to care more for having the newest numberplate possible does combine to reduce secondhand values especially once past 15 years old. The other thing is that price is driven by demand, and I don’t know if that demand is sustainable given that everyone is going to have to tighten their belts. Energy bills going up £50 a month? That’s about the cost of tax and insurance on a fun toy each month, so some people will take the hobby car out less often or sack it off altogether if their budget demands it. 

I can see why a standard European hatchback with half decent trim level, 60+mpg capability and solid reliability will hold its value, but the last couple of years has seen stuff from the pages of history and the bargain basement price range go a bit daft. It’s not like everyone’s rushing out to buy old shonkers either, I know plenty of people who lease and wouldn’t dream of going back to owning an older vehicle - someone I was talking with today summed it up - if it breaks they just phone up and have it fixed at no extra cost, running costs are fixed so no anxiety over how much the MoT will cost etc, it’s new so shouldn’t break, and they get to have a nice new car on the driveway that is better than what they could afford buying something the normal way via HP or outright. The ‘lost’ money by not owning the vehicle is just counted as a fixed cost of motoring like tax or insurance, and that’s the end of it. Work introduced a salary sacrifice scheme and plenty of people want to try it (despite the actual figures not being all that good), again these folk won’t consider buying a £1-4k car. 

I don’t know, it’s just over the last 18 months when folk have had spare cash or been better off the secondhand market has gone silly (helped by the component shortage) but now that spare cash has to go elsewhere it would make sense for the market to slow up a bit as people get jittery about spending too much. If it doesn’t slow up, does that indicate people are willing to fuck themselves over with huge debts again and means we are headed for a repeat of 2008? House prices have been mental as well for the last 18 months, people just seem to be spending like pissed sailors.

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Well I hope house prices are going mental because I've got one for sale and I'd like to get at least what I paid for it in 2009 back.
As far as cars go, for cheapies, add a grand to what we al thought were the 'correct' prices for older tat. I've been after something a little bit better than my usual £500-ish shitbox and reluctantly accepted that I'm going to be paying about £3-4k for what I'd have hoped to buy for £2k last year.
That said, the current petrol prices are keeping down the cost of the kind of things I like and the one I went to see this evening showed 24mpg on its trip computer so there may be hope for the low mileage shiter at least.


 

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Scrap prices are going to stop prices falling too low at the bottom end, so I doubt we'll get back to the days of buying MoTed runners for £250-300 even if they're undesirable, thirsty beasts.

The PCP thing is quite interesting. For example, I'm surprised to see it's now possible to take one out on an 8-yr old Lexus RX with over 70k on the clock for a term of 3+ years. I couldn't see what future value they were suggesting, I imagine they must be basing it on historic levels of depreciation rather than what is happening at present, so they don't get their fingers burnt.

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I think used prices will go up and a shift to older cars will happen at some point.

At some point when cost of living increase fully hits folk will start looking at the shiny PCP motor on the drive and think I should spend that money elsewhere.. 

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one thing to consider is this inner city  clean zone nonsense , petrol &  exempt cars will hold a price ??

and repairs , basic things such as clutch/ cambelts are not cheap and arnt getting any cheaper , so circa 300 extra notes on a "banger " . along with any other issues .

..

I am looking at my car outside and thinking , a grand would fix it up , or go out and splurge 3K or more to get somat similer ...

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I think there'll be a bit of natural selection. The unloved or un-interesting stuff that's to expensive to run will end up dieing off through mechanical or MOT failure and the the repair prices won't be justified. I think prices of this stuff will drop as the cost of living squeezes and folk just want rid. They'll then fall into the hands of people just using them as a banger then it goes back to my first point.

On the more interesting stuff it'll fall into the hands of enthusiasts or people who're willing to spend a little extra on fuel and RFL because they don't do many miles or low cost liability stuff usually means you can get a really nice car for not much outlay you can take the pain. I think this stuff will drop but not as much.

With the classic just now, prices seem high but it stuff really selling? People seemed to wanted to pay excessive purchase prices in lock down for a lock down project but now you need to pay an extra 800 quid a year to heat your house plus everything else are folk really wanting to pay 5 grand for a mk5 cortina they'll probably never user?

Sadly I think my 730d falls between these first two. It's a nice car you can get for not much money but it does 30mpg and has a high probability of future borkage. Diesel is also expensive and getting legislated out of city centres. I put 50 quid in it the other night  (all be it it was extremely empty) and it says 240 mile range .  

 

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Its not just the price of diesel going up faster than petrol, there is a general shortage of it, due to a large chunk of the refined diesel coming from Russia. So the price difference over petrol will continue to increase and it will get harder to find. Some local stations are sold out of Diesel in my neighbourhood. This will make older diesels worth less and push the price of petrol cars up

When fuel prices started shooting up, I initially thought adding a Diesel to the fleet was a good idea, but not any  more

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As I have said previously some prices of used are just traders trying it on.

Who is going to pay £4-5k for an eight year old diesel car with 170k on the clock? So the road tax is £30 a year - the chance of it shitting itself is so great you will have no choice but to spend on it as you are up to your arse cheeks in payments.

Low mileage mondeo titanium sport X - ten years old - are being advertised for up to £12k.

£12k. For a ten year old mondeo.

I can understand nearly new commanding a premium - like wise bangers that have a few years left. But not the stuff in between - diesel is expensive and the chance of borkage high.

Small petrol autos seem to be the most sought after at the moment.

 

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The UK has had depressed used car prices for a very long time, its now reflecting the same as the rest of Europe, the prices in the post above are what you would expect to pay in Spain/Portugal/Italy etc normally for used cars, 12k for a ten year old Mondeo is perfectly normal.

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49 minutes ago, Jazoli said:

The UK has had depressed used car prices for a very long time, its now reflecting the same as the rest of Europe, the prices in the post above are what you would expect to pay in Spain/Portugal/Italy etc normally for used cars, 12k for a ten year old Mondeo is perfectly normal.

Normal or sensible? I’ve had loads of ten year old Mondeo’s and many of them are a breakdown away from the scrapman. Most garages will not want to know about running faults on a diesel. 

Plus with the cost of living going up dramatically who with any sane mind is going to drop £12,000 on something that could shit the bed a fortnight later?

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Anyone seen this

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cost-of-living-crisis-hits-new-car-sales-rhzzqhq26

I tentatively scrolled through a few websites looking at new cars. Delivery times are still crazy unless you aren’t picky about what car you buy. Does anyone really want to choose a car now for delivery at christmas?

Toyota Corolla hybrid for example is ~30 weeks.

Surely that means demand for used cars is up? 

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We buy any car has just re-alligned the value of my sons bmw 118 2017
Bought it second hand in June 2020 , wbac value £8900 with 20000miles
Value at Dec 2021 with 32000m £11300
Value now £9800
Obviously they are in know with supply and demand so it looks like easing off a bit now.

Sent from my SM-P610 using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, Ian_Fearn said:

Anyone seen this

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cost-of-living-crisis-hits-new-car-sales-rhzzqhq26

I tentatively scrolled through a few websites looking at new cars. Delivery times are still crazy unless you aren’t picky about what car you buy. Does anyone really want to choose a car now for delivery at christmas?

Toyota Corolla hybrid for example is ~30 weeks.

Surely that means demand for used cars is up? 

Its supply that's the issue here. Because of the pandemic and Ukraine conflict the materials required to fully complete cars has been disrupted meaning less can be made.  Some manufacturers are now cutting or changing certain options on cars so they can complete them.

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If I cannot get new I want nearly new. Not a ten year old insignia.

My mate has just disposed of a 2011 325d estate - it was bought via BMW approved a few years ago, full history and he sold it with 80k on the clock.

WBAC got it for £5495 - I think this is low looking at what they sell for. If I 'd have known i'd have had it. I wonder what it will be punted on for. I still think it's traders advertising stuff for far in excess of what it's worth.

It will go pop at some point.

 

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I sold my 2009 325i manual saloon in M-Sport trim the other month, was really nicely specced but all the WBAC types were offering roughly £2500-ish, before they look at it and mark it down because the tyres are dirty from the drive over. It had 111k miles and was in great cosmetic condition (apart from the wheels needing a refurb and 2 tyres being an advisory on the MOT).

Their price was revised down in a chaser email after I'd sold it, I did that privately using Gumtree and it was sold on the first day for just under £4k. It was a little bit of faff with the buyer trying to push harder on the price but the minor back and forth was worth it as they seemed really keen on the car - I was expecting for it to hang around and to get some very lowball offers, but I had a couple of people queueing to see it so the demand is there.

It was a really nice car, but being a thirsty 3.0 six-pot, needing wheels refurbed and new tyres, I was happy for it to go at that price. There is one similar at a dealer on autotrader for £5200, I paid £5k for mine 3 years ago (and then spent  nearly 2k on injectors, a wheel hub, abs module). As it's an N53, it'll probably need the valves cleaning, injectors and a high pressure fuel pump replacing in the future - and that shit ain't cheap.

 

 

TL:DR - used cars are selling for more than they were worth a few years back, and there is high demand out there. I think the price rises are not slowing down for a while, even for older / potential big liability stuff. 

 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Are these people on drugs? £11,000 for a nine year old Mondeo? 

Im trying to fathom the logic in at what point you’d drop that sort of money on a 9 year old Mondeo, I’d assume the prospective purchaser would be taking it on the chucky over 3 or 4 years so it is in reality a £13,000 car, plus the inevitable diesel repairs it’ll want. And it’s the powershit box. 

Honestly if you went out now and bought or took finance out on that you ought to have someone arrange court of protection of your finances. 

F02295F6-E634-4CD0-880D-C5C8A50D8CA6.png

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How could anyone resist those Kerbmaster wheels and tyres! 

13 minutes ago, sierraman said:

Are these people on drugs? £11,000 for a nine year old Mondeo? 

Im trying to fathom the logic in at what point you’d drop that sort of money on a 9 year old Mondeo, I’d assume the prospective purchaser would be taking it on the chucky over 3 or 4 years so it is in reality a £13,000 car, plus the inevitable diesel repairs it’ll want. And it’s the powershit box. 

Honestly if you went out now and bought or took finance out on that you ought to have someone arrange court of protection of your finances. 

F02295F6-E634-4CD0-880D-C5C8A50D8CA6.png

How could anyone resist those Kerbmaster wheels and tyres? 

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1 hour ago, sierraman said:

Are these people on drugs? £11,000 for a nine year old Mondeo? 

Im trying to fathom the logic in at what point you’d drop that sort of money on a 9 year old Mondeo, I’d assume the prospective purchaser would be taking it on the chucky over 3 or 4 years so it is in reality a £13,000 car, plus the inevitable diesel repairs it’ll want. And it’s the powershit box. 

Honestly if you went out now and bought or took finance out on that you ought to have someone arrange court of protection of your finances. 

F02295F6-E634-4CD0-880D-C5C8A50D8CA6.png

As I have said before its the type of car people are trying to get away from. People ony want old diesels if they are cheap enough.

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1 hour ago, sierraman said:

Are these people on drugs? £11,000 for a nine year old Mondeo? 

Im trying to fathom the logic in at what point you’d drop that sort of money on a 9 year old Mondeo, I’d assume the prospective purchaser would be taking it on the chucky over 3 or 4 years so it is in reality a £13,000 car, plus the inevitable diesel repairs it’ll want. And it’s the powershit box. 

Honestly if you went out now and bought or took finance out on that you ought to have someone arrange court of protection of your finances. 

F02295F6-E634-4CD0-880D-C5C8A50D8CA6.png

"It's only going to cost me £200 a month" - yeah with a 10 year 12.9% APR finance package 🙃

That will be sort of folk who buy something like that. The payable price means nothing to them

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