The end of shite!

[CortinaDave]

I did see one BBC report that they are shooting for 2050 as the date of a total ban on existing petrol and diesel cars "with some exemptions".

 

To be honest.. im 37 now and i'll be 70 by then so probably this is more something that will impact on the next generation.

 

Interesting that the latest report also says SPEED BUMPS BAD and that councils should rip them out to improve air quality.

 

A decade ago we were told to buy diesel and my local council went beserk with the bumps, now the advice is the total opposite. They'll probably change their minds again.

 

As worthy as the idea of pollution reduction is, this really needs to be a global shift as in the grand scheme of things our wee island is pretty insignificant if the US and China plough on with not a care as is.

[SiC]

Don't forget it's not just global pollution we need to worry about (i.e. climate change) but local pollution too. NOx/PM2.5/etc really isn't good down our lungs - especially children and elderly too.

 

Electric cars need energy to charge their batteries. This has to come somewhere. However usually (in the western world) that is generated far away from where loads of humans gather and live (i.e. not in a city or town). Also centralised generation is easier to ensure it stays clean outputting and more efficient too.

[SiC]

I really wouldn't be surprised if by 2050 if we need licences, safety training and permits to own and handle petrol. Especially as petrol stations start to disappear. It is really dangerous stuff that we take for granted!

 

It'll become a bizarre concept that anyone over the age of 16 could go to their local petrol station and decant as much fuel as they want.

[Guest Hooli]

This like this make me really glad I'm not a yoof any more.

[Tayne]

 

Interesting that the latest report also says SPEED BUMPS BAD and that councils should rip them out to improve air quality.

 

A decade ago we were told to buy diesel and my local council went beserk with the bumps, now the advice is the total opposite. They'll probably change their minds again.

 

 

 

 

If you'd been around in 1948 would you be complaining about how government policy had always been to let sick poor people just die in a ditch and how dare this new fangled NHS care for people?

 

It might just be a good idea for government policy to evolve over time...

[Guest]

Slightly off topic, but I was following one of those new gullwing Tesla's to work the other day, and it had a towbar. Made me think for a bit. Electric motorhomes? They plug in every night anyway..hmmmm.

[Tayne]

 

How realistic is it that we will have the infrastructure for this by 2040? How do we get enough capacity from the power grid?

 

 

 

The people at the National Grid would be happy with a million electric cars with no changes to any infrastructure whatsoever today on the basis that most charging would be done over night which would smooth out demand peaks and troughs.

Smart metering and V2G will also help this.

They then have 23 years to prepare for all the other electric cars.

 

 

 

I can understand the clean air thing in places like London but over here in NI where it's 90% rural electric cars don't really make sense.

 

 

 

So you think the air over NI just stays there and the polluted air in London, Paris, Bejing just stays there and doesn't move?

And there are no effects of climate change in rural areas such as Cumbria, Boscastle and Syria?

 

[Tayne]

Slightly off topic, but I was following one of those new gullwing Tesla's to work the other day, and it had a towbar. Made me think for a bit. Electric motorhomes? They plug in every night anyway..hmmmm.

 

 

 

Tesla, towing?

 

You might wish to watch this.

 

https://youtu.be/ib-02b2ooLY?t=244

[Junkman]

The cost, even with an £8k grant, these cars are £25k plus, how the fuck are people on low incomes expected to afford the bloody things.

They aren't expected to afford the bloody things, they are expected to die.

[Bren]

As somebody who has developed rather nasty adult onset asthma I am all for improving air quality. However I want to see something happening other than an excuse for more taxation.

 

If you hanker after a guzzler I would take the plunge sooner rather than later. I fancy a monaro - it is now looking tempting.

 

If I am still holidaying in Devon in 2040 I am going to need a fooking long jojo reel...

[Tayne]

 

 

Even I am bored with hearing myself say that LPG could make a good short term contribution to air quality.  I believe there's a decision being made about which way taxis in London should go, with options for hybrid (presumably petrol) or lpg conversions of existing taxis.  The LPG conversion is relatively cheap, and the new hybrids cost a bomb.  It's all temporary technology until they are ready to go electric, so I'd go for the cheaper one personally.

 

 

London Taxis are required to be electric as of next year.

 

 

 

 

Won't this just mean that cars will have to have tiny electric motors to assist their enormous petrol engines and call themselves hybrids?

 

Like, say, the BMW 330e

 

The sales blurb - ultra low emissions, 148mpg, save the planet, drive to work on electric power only etc

 

The reality - 31mpg

 

 

The whole point of those cars is to allow long range normal combustion vehicles to run on electricity in low emission zones where fossil fuel use is prohibited.

Several cities in Germany are in implementing this as of 2018/2019, watch it happen in London.

 

 

 

 

Of course it's not the end of shite. Autoshite will  still be going strong  but will be full of Ebay Nissan Leaf buys and epic collection threads with the obligatory shot of the car being plugged into a lamp-post to get just  enough charge to limp home 

 

Already happening.

The conversion to LED lights means there spare capacity.

https://www.fastcompany.com/3039850/how-we-could-put-an-ev-charging-station-on-every-lamp-post

[Tayne]

Is hydrogen being ignored completely now? Is it just not viable?

 

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Commercial hydrogen is made by steam reforming natural gas, this uses huge amounts of energy and emits shit loads of CO2, you then need lots more energy to pressurise, store and transport it (with additional losses every time you move it).

It fights its way out of almost anything whilst damaging the container that holds it (embrittlement is the technical term), and pressure/temperature differences mean that hydrogen refilling pumps struggle to do more than a handful of vehicles every day.

I'm also willing to bet that you have more three-pin sockets in your home than there are hydrogen fuelling stations in the UK.

 

Its not clean, its not efficient and someone (the consumer) will have to pay for the infrastructure.

 

Alternatively, why not plug an electric car into one of those three pin sockets...

 

 

 

They'll need to extend the life expectancy of battery packs and reduce the cost of replacement to less than 4 figures though.

 

 

400k miles in a Prius taxi with 25-30% battery degradation not good enough for you?

Also, how much does the Vauxhall dealer charge for a new engine for a Corsa?

 

 

 

 

Given the political & financial influence that oil companies have around the world, wonder what they think of it? 

 

Ever heard of DONG Energy?

No sniggering at the back, the name comes from Denmark Oil & Natural Gas and they used to be Denmark's state owned oil company.

They're private sector now, but they don't do fossil fuels anymore.

They've gone 100% renewable.

[They_all_do_that_sir]

The people at the National Grid would be happy with a million electric cars with no changes to any infrastructure whatsoever today on the basis that most charging would be done over night which would smooth out demand peaks and troughs.

Smart metering and V2G will also help this.

They then have 23 years to prepare for all the other electric cars.

 

 

 

 

 

So you think the air over NI just stays there and the polluted air in London, Paris, Bejing just stays there and doesn't move?

And there are no effects of climate change in rural areas such as Cumbria, Boscastle and Syria?

 

I wasn't saying that. I was referring to the localised issues caused by a concentration of vehicles into a small space, cities do have very obviously worse air quality than places with lower population densities.

 

I'd be happy enough with an alternative fuel car, and as a family we do plenty of things to try and have a smaller footprint - we will cycle places where it's within the kid's range (currently up to 10 mile radius now they've got bigger!). Walk most places like school run etc.

 

We have one main car which could easily be electric, we looked at ZOEs last year when renault were offering cheap leases but range anxiety put us off.

 

I have the XM as a second car and as a hobby car does limited miles. My motorbike does about 4k a year but that includes commuting. Both of these will still be viable in the way I use them for years to come I'm sure.

 

 

 

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[Tayne]

 

 

2. Im not interested in electric cars until they can do 350-400 miles on a charge, so you dont need to worry about them running out of power or stopping too charge every so often, thats like trying to drive from Glasgow to London and only sticking in £5 of fuel and doing the same everytime it gets low, fuck that, what a ballache that would be.

 

 

The 300 mile electric car already exists but its not cheap.

The 280 mile car for half the price will be launched on Friday.

The 350 mile car is about 18-24months away.

But that gives you time to think up more reasons why you wouldn't even consider one.

 

 

 

Climate change is imaginary as far as CO2 goes, there is no proof in the fossil record of higher CO2 causing a rise in temps. Despite what they claim the record shows it the other way around.

 

As for air quality etc, try doing something about open cast mining, deforestation etc etc - you know that stuff that really affects the environment.

 

 

Aye, its just you and that plucky band of oil barons and billionaires fighting the 99% of the scientific community who want to ruin it for everyone else.

 

 

Theres an electric Focus im sure, plus the eGolf, and as you said the hybrid Mondeo but due to the crazy prices just now they arent really catching on. 

 

Maybe Volvo will lead the way with their claim about no diesel/petrol cars in the range by 2020 or whatever it was the other week. 

 

In the US, the Tesla Model S outsells the Jaguar XJ, BMW 7series, Audi A8, Porsche Panamera and Lexus LS combined. Its also just edging ahead of the Mercedes S-class.

Thats why BMW, Audi, Porsche and Jaguar are rushing to developing premium electric cars and Daimler Benz are investing 500million Euros in a battery factory.

All that they dow ill trickle down to the small stuff over the next few years.

 

Volvo said everything will have a plug by 2019, but it full electric or PHEV.

[bigstraight6]

I was genuinely rather shocked when I heard the news this morning just after my 6am alarm, I thought I was in the middle of a bad dream...very out of the blue, It's also completely bonkers just a week after the same Government announced shelving a number of railway electrification schemes, very mixed up thinking.

 

There seems to be a lot of "don't worry you will still be able to buy petrol and drive old stuff" sentiment on here about the outcome but I'm not so sure, with less demand there will be fewer outlets and a huge hike in prices of fuel. It might sound selfish but this is my main concern.

 

Hopefully everything might be alright and I might be able to afford a used hybrid of some description for daily use and be able to drive my beloved old cars sometimes, even though i will be knocking on a bit by then!

[martc]

As worthy as the idea of pollution reduction is, this really needs to be a global shift as in the grand scheme of things our wee island is pretty insignificant if the US and China plough on with not a care as is.

 

The Chinese are getting very serious about sacking off fossil fuels and making major investments in renewable energy. I wouldn't be surprised if the developments needed for a really practical electrical vehicle will be Chinese (long range, short charging time etc).

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/china-invest-renewable-fuel-2020-energy and if your not a Gaurdianista - https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/05/world/asia/china-renewable-energy-investment.html

 

It's Trump's mob who don't give a fig.

[Guest Hooli]

Oh btw, we won't be able to still buy n drive old stuff. The plan is remove all petrol powered stuff by 2050.

 

I'm glad I'll be too old to care as I intend to have a large old bike collection by then.

[Guest Hooli]

 

 

Aye, its just you and that plucky band of oil barons and billionaires fighting the 99% of the scientific community who want to ruin it for everyone else.

 

 

 

 

 

Let me correct that for you.

 

Me, lots of others & the oil barons against 99% of the section of the scientific community THAT ARE PAID FROM climate change taxes. Lots of independent science to say it's bollocks.

 

Remember the increase* in global temps the other year? well if you discount all the sensors that had factories and other heat sources built next to them, the average temp went down by more than they claimed an increase. That's like saying it's a hot summer because I'm sweating stood next to the oven doing a roast.

 

Like I said, there is so much real environmental damage happening it's criminal to ignore that & go for this fake that just raises taxes.

[Parky]

Infrastructure will be an issue but it does rather throw the gauntlet down to the electric companies to get their shit together. And if we really want to be green, we are going to have to have more wind, wave, and nuclear power as tripling coal or oil consumption rather negates the point of this exercise.

 

I am pretty optimistic. It's an ambitious target but if any nation can innovate to deal with it, its us.

 

Of course making electronic engineering degrees free of charge would help ensure we have enough engineers to do the job.....

[SiC]

A lot of universities have axed Electronic and Electrical Engineering (there is a difference between the two) degrees due to a lack of interest.

[Guest Hooli]

Well it does involve learning, unlike say sociology.

[Negative Creep]

I think car sharing is great, lots of people will go for it who treat cars as white goods, reducing total number of vehicles (per head) meaning more road space to park your shite!

 

 

I don't think they will. Otherwise those people would be using taxis at the moment.

[sierraman]

Can't wait to see the Government marching in and crushing someone's classic Ferrari collection in 2050. I'd imagine though by 2040 anyway most cars will be either hybrid or electric anyway, the cost will have come down and it will be less of an issue.

[Guest Hooli]

I don't think they will. Otherwise those people would be using taxis at the moment.

 

Depends if car sharing is as expensive as owning a car or using a taxi, The latter costing about as much as owning a car & paying chauffeur but with much worse cars & driving.

[Chris2cv]

While conceding that something needs to be done, I am cocerned by this. As demand for petrol and diesel declines, the price is likely to increase dramatically and supply will decrease as many petrol stations will close. One near me still sells 4 star (or did when I last went past) and it was way more expensive that unleaded. Surely electricity will have to get more expensive to replace the loss of petrol tax as well as probably road tolls.  The power stations are at near full capacity, with any new stations likely to be years away.

 

   I am not against electric cars as such, my main concern is range, not so much on new ones as this seems to be making good progress, but what happens at 5, or 10 years old? Will batteries be economical to replace  or will we have to accept ranges decline as all batteries do over time. My phone is seven months old and the battery has declined from about 60 hours to barely 48, and that is if it is just on, if I actually use it then I might get 24 hours!  If I was in the market for a lease car, I might be more tempted, as I would not be stuck with an old outdated car - one that we sell has gone from around 80 miles range to around 250 in just a couple of years, meaning that the older ones are far less desirable. I don't doubt that technology will improve, it always does, but I would always be worried about range - I can go around 500 miles in the Clio without filling it, and then only need a couple of minutes at any one of thousands of petrol stations to be ready to go again. There is simply not the capacity for electric cars to do this. Yet.

 

  I am also concerned about compatibility, there seem to be a few different systems, which are not compatible, would the one I need be available everywhere, or would I end up with the Betamax of electric cars.

 

  I am not necessarily against it, I just think that there is a lot to be done before people will be convinced that it is a viable decision to go electric. Lease buyers may well take it up quicker, but for people like me that keep their cars for very long periods (Clio 15 years, 2cv 24 years in September) I would be seriously concerned that I might be facing an expensive bill in later years.  We will see.

[SiC]

The battery technology at the moment has longevity issues. However it's more than made up from the reliability of the other parts of the drivetrain.

 

I worry for mechanics. There is going to be a lot less demand for them. Yes things will break, but there are far less moving parts in them.

[Parky]

If Fiat are making electric cars by then, I think mechanics should have plenty to keep them going!

[Guest Hooli]

Just wait for the goona10 leccy model...

[mjrose78]

While conceding that something needs to be done, I am cocerned by this. As demand for petrol and diesel declines, the price is likely to increase dramatically and supply will decrease as many petrol stations will close. One near me still sells 4 star (or did when I last went past) and it was way more expensive that unleaded. Surely electricity will have to get more expensive to replace the loss of petrol tax as well as probably road tolls. The power stations are at near full capacity, with any new stations likely to be years away.

 

I am not against electric cars as such, my main concern is range, not so much on new ones as this seems to be making good progress, but what happens at 5, or 10 years old? Will batteries be economical to replace or will we have to accept ranges decline as all batteries do over time. My phone is seven months old and the battery has declined from about 60 hours to barely 48, and that is if it is just on, if I actually use it then I might get 24 hours! If I was in the market for a lease car, I might be more tempted, as I would not be stuck with an old outdated car - one that we sell has gone from around 80 miles range to around 250 in just a couple of years, meaning that the older ones are far less desirable. I don't doubt that technology will improve, it always does, but I would always be worried about range - I can go around 500 miles in the Clio without filling it, and then only need a couple of minutes at any one of thousands of petrol stations to be ready to go again. There is simply not the capacity for electric cars to do this. Yet.

 

I am also concerned about compatibility, there seem to be a few different systems, which are not compatible, would the one I need be available everywhere, or would I end up with the Betamax of electric cars.

 

I am not necessarily against it, I just think that there is a lot to be done before people will be convinced that it is a viable decision to go electric. Lease buyers may well take it up quicker, but for people like me that keep their cars for very long periods (Clio 15 years, 2cv 24 years in September) I would be seriously concerned that I might be facing an expensive bill in later years. We will see.

The latest tesla cells are reported to loose 5% capacity in the first 50k miles and another 5% over the following 100k. There are taxi Nissan leafs with in excess of 90% capacity after 100k. It's only going to improve.

 

As much fun as IC cars are as toys, as methods of transport they are dogshit. They are tiring to pilot, dangerous, skill intensive, expensive, polluting, and they have lots of moving parts. It took 100 years of engineering refinement to make reciprocating engines reliable.

 

Mechanically, ev's are simpler and with modern electronics should be much easier to build reliably. Imagine buying a carbon fibre car that you can maintain indefinitely, easily. Swapping out the battery pack every twenty years.

 

As a way to get to work I'll have a self driving electric vehicle every time.

 

As something to drive occasionally for fun, I'll have mk2 1.1 fiesta. Please and Thank you!

 

I suspect my two year old will never have need of a driving license but he may still have his own self driving car at 17, or younger!

 

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[Tayne]

 

   I am not against electric cars as such, my main concern is range, not so much on new ones as this seems to be making good progress, but what happens at 5, or 10 years old? Will batteries be economical to replace  or will we have to accept ranges decline as all batteries do over time. My phone is seven months old and the battery has declined from about 60 hours to barely 48, and that is if it is just on, if I actually use it then I might get 24 hours!  If I was in the market for a lease car, I might be more tempted, as I would not be stuck with an old outdated car - one that we sell has gone from around 80 miles range to around 250 in just a couple of years, meaning that the older ones are far less desirable. I don't doubt that technology will improve, it always does, but I would always be worried about range - I can go around 500 miles in the Clio without filling it, and then only need a couple of minutes at any one of thousands of petrol stations to be ready to go again. There is simply not the capacity for electric cars to do this. Yet.

 

I guess since you're bringing this up that you must do this on a regular basis, i do want to ask why but don't feel you have to answer.

I doubt its work, your boss would be a shit to make you drive 1000miles in one go in your own car (it might even be illegal).

How long does it take, 17 or 18 hours? Do you split the driving between two people or is it just you? Is it all in the Uk or do you cross into europe?

I'm not sure my bladder could hold up to 500miles driving without stopping.

If you've been doing this on the weekends the whole time you've owned the Clio then it must have somewhere near 750k miles on it by now?

 

You might be interested in these chaps, LA to NYC in an electric car.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/9/15938028/tesla-model-s-cannonball-run-record

2800 miles in 51 hours.

 

 

 

 

 

 

  I am also concerned about compatibility, there seem to be a few different systems, which are not compatible, would the one I need be available everywhere, or would I end up with the Betamax of electric cars.

 

 

Its only DC you have two worry about (all the AC stuff is compatible) and the rapid chargers up here have all three on them. Tesla make adapters and I reckon the Germans will once they get up to speed.